Citi's target price of 143K is indeed worth breaking down. The 62% upside expectation sounds optimistic, but the key is to look at the supporting logic—the 70K support level they mentioned and the rebound in ETF demand are core factors.

The issue is that at the current 88K level, on-chain data shows whales have recently slowed down, and large transfer frequency has not significantly increased. If the price is to reach 143K, two signals need to be observed: first, sustained inflow of institutional funds confirmation; second, whether the price can stay within the 75K-78K range without breaking down.

Citi provided three scenarios—down to 78.5K, baseline at 143K, and optimistic at 189K. From a data perspective, I am more concerned not with the final target price, but whether there is enough funding support to break above 100K. Currently, ETF net inflows are still happening but weakening, which means that for the upside to open up, new incremental funds need to enter.

Recently, it is important to monitor changes in leverage on the derivatives side and the holdings of large investors, as these two indicators often reflect the true market direction earlier than institutional forecasts.