NFT, L2, and then prediction markets? By 2026, competition should be based on essence rather than imitation.

Source: TokenPost Original Title: [Editorial] NFT·L2 followed by this time ‘Prediction Market’?… In 2026, compete with ‘essence’ rather than ‘copying’ Original Link: Few places love the word ‘narrative(Narrative·Story)’ as much as the blockchain industry. It’s because they believe that a convincing ‘story’ drives up prices and attracts investments more than the actual technology or business fundamentals. As we enter the new year 2026, this market is once again intoxicated by a massive narrative. That is the ‘Prediction Market(Prediction Market)’.

Seeing large platforms clamoring to launch prediction markets, I feel a bitter déjà vu(旣視感). Just four months ago, all exchanges were branding themselves as ‘Perp DEX(Perpetual Decentralized Exchange)’. It’s a mirror image of the past. Let’s rewind a bit further. Remember the ‘NFT(Non-Fungible Token)’ craze that caused digital file fragments to be valued at hundreds of millions of won, and the ‘L2(Layer 2)’ boom that sprouted up claiming to pave roads that no one would use?

What remains on the battlefield(戰場) of those dazzling narratives? Most NFTs have become worthless scraps, and ghost towns of L2 chains only drain server costs. The DEXs that sprouted up four months ago are quietly disappearing without a trace. The price paid for chasing narratives has been brutal.

The failure formula in this field is painfully repetitive. When pioneers open the way, big capital catches wind, and soon countless ‘imitations(Aryu)’ flood in. This year, counterfeit products mimicking leading companies will dominate the scene.

I can confidently say that in six months, this narrative will also become outdated. Then, a new prey will emerge, tempting the migratory birds once again.

The problem is ‘time-lag(Time-lag)’. When you sense the trend and rush in, leading companies are already far ahead. For latecomers, prediction markets are not a vital business but merely a ‘cosmetic(cosmetic)’ to keep up with trends. Copying others’ success formulas without authenticity has become obsolete. Late followers chasing narratives will ultimately only fatten the ecosystems of leading companies and then disappear as ‘fuse(Fuses)’.

Most of the prediction market players currently emerging will vanish without a trace in a year. Only a few with original solutions and those who have carved out a solid niche will survive.

In 2026, to Web3 leaders: Please, do not chase narratives.

Trends are like waves—if you get swept away, you drown; if you ride them, you enjoy, but merely hopping onto others’ waves will leave you drifting forever. Instead of asking ‘What is this meta(Meta)?’, ask ‘What is our essence?’. Don’t waste your most precious resource—time—copying others’ stories; instead, focus on the products you truly believe in穿鑿.

The words of Roman philosopher Seneca, ‘A captain who does not know his destination has no wind順風,’ are like a sharp slap to this market, intoxicated by the illusion of narrative.