2026-01-05 01:23:11

According to the latest data, the probability of crude oil futures (CL) closing higher on January 5th once surged to 80%, which is indeed quite high.

The underlying logic is actually not complicated. On one hand, the dramatic change in Venezuela's political situation over the weekend directly affected global energy supply expectations— as a major oil and gas exporter in Latin America, such geopolitical events have always made the market highly sensitive. On the other hand, the latest crude oil inventory data released by EIA showed a decline, signaling a tightening of supply and boosting traders' confidence in oil price support.

There's a detail worth noting: the settlement logic of the forecast contracts is very clear, only comparing the CME official settlement prices on January 5th and January 2nd; intraday fluctuations do not count. In other words, even if geopolitical events cause short-term retracements during trading hours, as long as the closing price is higher than the previous trading day, it is considered a rise. The market generally believes that this probability indeed exists.

From the perspective of capital flow, traders' positions have fully expressed this expectation—indicating that supply-side contraction factors are becoming the main driving force behind oil prices.

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NotGonnaMakeIt

· 01-08 00:35

80% probability? Whenever something happens in Venezuela, oil prices have to rise. This pattern is too familiar. Inventory drops, supply tightens, the logic makes sense. The question is whether it can hold until the close. Funds have already been invested, just waiting for January 5th to avoid a雷 (risk).

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RektButStillHere

· 01-07 19:49

80% probability? Venezuela's recent move indeed gave oil prices some support, but geopolitical risks can change instantly. The real logic is the inventory decline; short-term fluctuations don't matter much, it's all about the closing price. Funds have all been poured in, so either a nice profit or a complete gg.

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Degen4Breakfast

· 01-07 18:16

80% probability? Venezuela really played this hand well; as soon as energy supplies tighten, someone steps in to buy the dip. Tightening supply is the key; when inventories drop, prices must rise. This logic makes sense. Can CL hold this wave? Feels like it might be set up for another short-term trap.

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ChainSherlockGirl

· 01-06 08:27

80% probability? To put it simply, the big players are all betting on this closing price move. Whenever something happens in Venezuela, it's immediately a supply-side story. Traders eat this up. Honestly, those fluctuations during the trading session are pointless; in the end, it all comes down to the settlement price. I like this logic—it's very clear. With the capital flow all laid out there, the chips won't lie. The tight supply has indeed become the main story.

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ZeroRushCaptain

· 01-05 01:53

80%? I don't buy it. This is exactly the time to take action according to the contrarian indicator.

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RumbleValidator

· 01-05 01:51

80% this probability sounds impressive, but a closer look at the settlement logic—only comparing the closing price, intraday fluctuations are irrelevant. The key is whether the supply-side data can stay stable; EIA needs to continue releasing positive news.

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FOMOSapien

· 01-05 01:50

80% probability, it sounds pretty uncertain, just worried about being slapped back by geopolitical events in the end. Venezuela's move is indeed fierce, but the decline in inventory is a real positive, right? Still the same point, only looking at the closing price for settlement, all the fluctuations in between are wasted, this setup is quite cunning, huh. All the chips are being poured in, it seems traders truly believe in this rally. Is this wave going to be a trap again? Really can't tell.

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NightAirdropper

· 01-05 01:42

Venezuela's oil prices soar at the slightest disturbance—been through this routine many times, right? 80% chance it sounds impressive, but when it comes to settlement day, it's a whole different story. Just because inventories are dropping, you jump straight to bullish? I feel like it's just a repeated signal of harvesting retail investors. Whether this time can truly break the level or just another accumulation phase, I’ll bet on 🍺 to find out. With such a full hand of geopolitical cards, it feels like the market is heading towards a limit-down drop later.

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FreeRider

· 01-05 01:32

Venezuela is causing trouble again. As expected, geopolitical issues are still the biggest factor in stirring oil prices. Inventory data drops and prices want to rise—that logic makes sense, but a 80% probability feels a bit optimistic. Closing prices are just closing prices; no matter how volatile intraday, it's all pointless. This set of rules really emphasizes discipline. Funds have already bet, it seems the market is truly bearish on supply. Short-term fluctuations are normal; winning by just one point at close is common. In this kind of probability game, someone always guesses right.

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AirdropFatigue

· 01-05 01:31

80% probability? The chaos in Venezuela is directly pushing the market up; this hand is quite strong. Inventory decline + geopolitical game, this time oil might really rise. It's the old trick of supply tightening again, but this time it's a bit interesting. Market fluctuations during the session are pointless; just look at the settlement price, and you'll understand. Funds have already voted; let's see how January 5th unfolds.

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