Bitcoin breaks through $90,000, hitting a nearly three-week high. But behind this rally lies an awkward truth—the market is celebrating loudly, while hands remain very calm.

Let's look at the hard data: futures premium has fallen to an annualized rate of only 4%. What does this mean compared to previous years? It’s a sign of rampant leverage among long positions. Now? Major players are clearly pulling back. Even more painfully, spot ETF flows have been bleeding since December 15, with a net outflow of over $900 million in one go. The rally to a new high is actually accompanied by capital fleeing—this stark contrast is enough to make people ponder.

Next, market psychology: the futures basis has settled below the neutral line, with leveraged traders acting cautiously; on Saturday, put option premiums were unusually active, as big players quietly buy "insurance." Can you imagine? More and more professional traders are choosing to hedge during the rally.

So, is this rebound a trap or a starting point? The data points to a clear answer: the current market sentiment is more cautious than greedy.

For retail investors, the choice in front of them is quite painful. The die-hard hodlers insist "must stay in," but smart money is reducing positions as the price rises. If you're afraid of missing out and also afraid of being cut, why not change your mindset: opportunities created by dips are often more valuable than chasing highs. Keep your chips intact, wait for the market to tumble, then buy the dip—that’s the veteran’s strategy.

What do you think about this rally? Trust in chasing highs or wait for a pullback? Share your thoughts.