The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three consecutive times in 2025, bringing the rate down to the 3.50%–3.75% range. Sounds good, but here’s the question—how will this round of monetary easing in 2026 affect global assets?

Don’t be fooled by the illusion of history repeating itself. The 2020 "helicopter money" wave indeed boosted all assets, but the playbook for 2026 is completely different. This time, we’re dealing with a high starting interest rate, quantitative tightening, and a bunch of maturing debt. In plain terms, only reliable assets with cash flow can survive comfortably; others? It’s tough.

You’re all concerned about liquidity, so let me tell you the truth: the circulation of stablecoins (USDT, USDC) has not moved for three months straight. On the surface, the rate cut expectations are heating up, but in reality, no new funds are entering the market. Even more painful data shows that Bitcoin ETF net outflows in November-December reached $4.57 billion, the worst since its launch in 2024. This is the current situation—big institutions are fleeing, retail investors are catching the bag, and liquidity is a trap. Funds are shuttling between mainstream assets and cash, but not jumping into risk markets.

So, when will the signals for bottoming out come? Remember two signals: first, stablecoin circulation has been growing for three consecutive months; second, the US dollar index has fallen below 100. Whichever appears first is the true turning point for the market.

Now, let’s see how different assets will perform and diverge in 2026. On the US stock side, the AI investment boom is still supporting tech stocks, but valuation bubbles are already on the table. US bond yields will likely fluctuate between 4% and 4.5% in the short term, only declining once rate cuts are actually implemented. What about gold? Central banks are still buying, providing support, but the weakness in industrial attributes will gradually become apparent.