If Bitcoin truly experiences a rebound in the first half of the year, it will most likely be the last opportunity window for retail investors to escape.

The current market strategy, frankly, is everyone betting on who is not the last to take the bait. On the surface, it looks like there is ample capital and opportunities everywhere, but the rules of this round of the game have already changed. Institutional funds account for an increasing share, retail investors' influence is continuously shrinking, and these institutional players are becoming more and more meticulous.

Once there are signs of a rebound, those still holding onto the dream of a bull market will definitely rush in to add positions. They will say they have finally bottomed out, but little do they know that smart money has long planned its exit route. Many institutions are actually already planning how to gracefully exit at high levels.

The market is never short of liquidity; what is truly lacking are new stories that can attract attention. If there is a rebound in the first half of the year, it is most likely driven by a new concept gaining temporary popularity. The problem is, these narratives often become tools for harvesting retail investors. By the time ordinary investors realize and try to follow the trend, seasoned players have already disappeared. This is how the game is played—those who lose are inevitably the latecomers who wake up too late.