The Fed's three rate cuts in 2025 are already set in stone, but whether they will continue to loosen monetary policy in 2026 is where the market's real disagreement lies.

Looking at the dot plot, there is a clear divide within the Federal Reserve regarding 2026—there's only room for 0 to 2 rate cuts. What does this mean? The market has completely lost its clear expected trajectory and can only be guided by each economic data release.

For the crypto world, this is neither purely good nor bad news, but an environment full of liquidity uncertainties. The market's ultimate direction depends on three key questions:

Will inflation continue to decline? Will employment data start to soften? Will the Fed be forced to act due to reality?

If easing policies settle, risk assets are likely to rebound; if policies swing back and forth, markets should prepare for prolonged volatility; if inflation suddenly rebounds, the entire valuation system will need to be reassessed.

In this period of "discontinuous liquidity," money won't flow evenly into all corners. Instead, an interesting phenomenon will emerge—Bitcoin will become the biggest liquidity sink, for straightforward reasons: it is the safe haven in an era of interest rate uncertainty, the ultimate consensus asset for hedging long-term fiat devaluation risk, and the fortress most funds tend to flock to during liquidity crunches. Altcoins will find it much harder to carve out a share.

In plain terms, 2026 will be less about a full-blown bull market and more about a "variety screening race." Instead of obsessing over how many times the Fed will cut rates, it's more important to realize—amidst this great uncertainty—holding the most certain assets is the key to survival.