To earn excess returns in the crypto market, the key is to time the start of the altcoin season accurately. Compared to the strategies in 2021, the situation in 2026 is clearly more complex—relying solely on traditional indicators is far from enough; on-chain data, macro cycles, and technical analysis must all be considered together.

Let's start with on-chain trends. Recent data is interesting. Although the altcoin market experienced intense volatility at the end of last year, the number of transactions flowing into exchanges was at a low level. On mainstream trading platforms, the number of buy-in transactions for altcoins generally did not exceed 30,000, which is far below the over 100,000 transactions during the major adjustment in 2024.

What does this indicate? Investor behavior patterns have changed. They are no longer rushing to dump coins on exchanges; instead, they tend to flow into decentralized exchanges or convert directly into stablecoins for defense. This lateral movement and lack of selling pressure often suggest that market sentiment is gradually stabilizing, and a phase of accumulation may be brewing.

Another important indicator not to ignore is the trend of Bitcoin dominance. History shows that once BTC.D significantly drops from above 60%, it usually means funds are starting to shift massively into altcoins. This shift often marks the real opportunity.