Friends, I want to discuss a topic that many people are avoiding: the US federal government is accumulating debt at an astonishing rate.

The data is in front of us—every 100 days, an additional $1 trillion in new debt is added. This pace is unprecedented in history. What does it mean? It’s the government issuing new debt to pay off old debt, with interest becoming heavier and heavier, ultimately creating a tightening dead loop. Why call it a death spiral? Because this trend is already very hard to reverse.

What’s even more concerning is that the US faces a dilemma. Trying to reduce the deficit by imposing tariffs? That would mean a decrease in the international supply of dollars, directly undermining the foundation of dollar hegemony. As you can see, no matter what choice is made, it’s a double loss.

Last April’s market performance illustrates the issue well. US stocks, bonds, and exchange rates all plummeted simultaneously—which was unimaginable in the past. People finally realized that US Treasuries are not a safe haven. With sovereign credit ratings downgraded, the 10-year US Treasury yield has remained above 4%, as the market demands higher risk compensation.

The most genuine reactions come from central banks around the world. From 2022 to 2024, global central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold each year for three consecutive years. What does this indicate? Everyone is quietly shifting towards gold and other assets, gradually reducing their holdings of US dollars.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are playing an increasingly important role. When fiat currency systems come under pressure, assets with scarcity and decentralization features become especially attractive. This could be the best narrative opportunity for cryptocurrencies in recent years.