The depreciation of the US dollar combined with rate cuts and balance sheet expansion directly pushed up dollar-denominated non-ferrous metals. This round of price increases is strongly correlated with the dollar's weakness and can usually last about ten years.

The mechanism is actually not complicated. When the dollar depreciates, central banks around the world, in order to protect foreign exchange reserves, start selling US bonds and increasing gold holdings, which pushes gold prices higher. Meanwhile, explosive growth in industries such as new energy, semiconductors, and AI has led to a sharp surge in demand for metals like silver, copper, tungsten, antimony, and lithium carbonate. The problem is that capacity expansion takes time, and in the short term, supply cannot keep up, leading to a widening supply gap and naturally driving prices higher.

So, is it too late to say that non-ferrous metals have already risen too much and have peaked? It's still too early. Looking ahead five years, these strategic metals will still maintain an upward trend, and investing in related listed companies might actually be a good strategy.