I have a friend who suddenly ran over one day and said she wanted to put all her assets into the market. She was holding her phone, pointing at the list of coins that had skyrocketed overnight, eyes shining: "They say online this one is about to take off, should we buy the dip?"

I didn't directly dismiss her enthusiasm; instead, I asked a question: "What criteria do you use to judge whether a coin is a real opportunity or just a pump-and-dump by the whales?"

She was stunned. Most people never think about this before entering the market.

**Filtering Coins: No FOMO, Just Data**

I took her list and flipped through it. About ten coins, all of which were the hottest in the past two weeks. Then I told her a harsh fact: 90% of people who lose money choose coins like this.

So I use a simple but effective screening method. First, check the trading volume. If the volume has been shrinking for three consecutive days, exclude that coin immediately, indicating waning interest. Second, observe the reaction after a sharp rise. If a coin jumps over 20% in a single day but the next day the volume drops sharply, that’s a typical sign of the main players offloading—exclude those too. Third, look at the weekly MACD. If it hasn't formed a golden cross and the energy bars are still green, then ignore it.

After these three steps, fewer than three coins remain from her original ten-plus. She frowned: "Is that all?"

I asked her back: "Are we here to chase hype or to make money?"

**That’s the key difference.** Most people are always chasing the hottest topics, not realizing that the highest hype often coincides with the greatest risk. I never listen to those "hundredfold calls" in the chat groups; I only look at whether the price stays above key moving averages, whether there's real volume support, and if there are signs of price and volume rising together in the past week.

**Patience: The Easiest Profit Point to Overlook**

After filtering the coins, most people make a second mistake—going all-in on their target coin, hoping to double their money the next day.

My approach is completely opposite. Once I confirm the target coin, I set an entry condition: the price must retrace to near the 60-day moving average, and the daily volume must be at least twice the average of the past two weeks. Only when these conditions are met do I consider entering.

Why be so particular? Because it indicates two things: First, that the main players are building positions at the bottom, and the volume increase proves genuine capital involvement; second, that the price is retracing but hasn't broken through key support, meaning the short-selling pressure is limited. Entering at this point helps avoid buying at the peak.

Another point—never go all-in at once. My strategy is to buy in batches. First, buy 40% of the planned position at the confirmed entry point. If the price continues to fall and hits a lower support level, add another 30%. The remaining 30% is only bought later. The benefit? Even if I’m wrong, losses are controlled.

**Stop-Loss: The Only Way to Protect Profits**

Someone asked me, when should I sell?

My standard is very clear: if the price falls below the 60-day moving average, I cut immediately. No matter if I’m in profit or loss, no matter if I might get back to break-even. Because once it breaks that line, the medium-term trend is broken, and holding on is just gambling. The biggest gamblers often end up bankrupt.

Conversely, how do I take profits when in the green? There’s also a standard. If the price stays above the 30-day moving average, indicating the short-term trend is still intact, I keep holding. But once I see signs of volume stagnation at high levels—price can't go higher, volume keeps piling up—that’s when I consider trimming positions gradually. Usually, that’s a sign that the whales are preparing to offload.

**In the digital world, the most valuable thing isn’t stories of overnight riches, but the profits that can actually be realized.** Chasing hype and chasing risk are two different things. Using data to filter, patiently waiting, and disciplined stop-losses—these are the practices that the truly profitable traders follow.

My friend didn’t go all-in in the end; instead, she filtered her list using this logic and chose two obscure coins. Half a month later, she told me that although her gains weren’t as spectacular as those hot coins, she could sleep peacefully and hadn’t lost money.

And that’s enough.