Low Earth Orbit Satellite House of Cards: If Musk's Starlink crashes, could global satellites collide within 3 days?

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is about to go public, and concept stocks like Innolux (3481) are also making headlines. As thousands of artificial satellites are launched into orbit, the space environment around Earth is becoming increasingly precarious. A recent research paper published in December 2025 introduces a new indicator called the CRASH Clock, revealing startling data: if all human operations cease, a catastrophic collision could occur in less than three days in low Earth orbit.

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This paper, titled “The Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Megaconstellation Close Conjunctions,” was jointly published by researchers from Princeton University, the University of British Columbia, and Regina University. The research team warns that human pressure on the orbital environment has reached unprecedented levels, with very little margin for error.

The CRASH Clock has shortened from 121 days to 2.8 days

The study indicates that the so-called “CRASH Clock” is an indicator used to measure the pressure on the orbital environment, specifically defined as “the time until a catastrophic collision occurs without any avoidance maneuvers or loss of situational awareness.” In plain language, if no human intervention occurs, satellites in low Earth orbit could experience a destructive collision within days.

Data shows that in 2018, before the widespread adoption of “megaconstellations,” the CRASH Clock was at 121 days. However, by 2025, with the rapid deployment of megaconstellations like SpaceX’s Starlink, this number has plummeted to 2.8 days. This means that in the event of extreme solar storms causing satellite malfunctions or communication disruptions, we have almost no time to respond to the ensuing chain reaction of collisions.

Current low Earth orbit satellites rely on human-operated collision avoidance

The authors describe the current orbital environment as a house of cards. The safety of the orbit is entirely dependent on operators frequently and precisely executing collision avoidance maneuvers.

Data from the study shows that at the densest part of Starlink’s constellation at 550 km altitude, close encounters (less than 1 km apart) occur approximately every 11 minutes. If the avoidance systems fail due to software glitches or solar storms, the risk of collision quickly becomes a reality.

The study specifically highlights the intense geomagnetic storm of May 2024 as a warning. During that event, atmospheric drag increased sharply, and over half of active satellites (mainly Starlink) had to perform maneuvers to avoid collisions. In such chaotic conditions, satellite position uncertainties could reach several kilometers, making collision avoidance extremely difficult. If a more severe solar storm, like the Carrington Event of 1859, occurs, the consequences could be unimaginable.

Scholars call for attention to the risks of low Earth orbit satellites

The research team emphasizes that the shortening of the CRASH Clock does not directly mean that the Kessler Syndrome (a chain reaction of debris collisions rendering orbits unusable) has fully erupted, but it clearly indicates that our reliance on zero-error human operations has reached a dangerous threshold.

The authors urge that for the sustainable development of space, this fragility must be addressed. Instead of merely calculating how many more satellites can fit into the orbit, focus should shift to monitoring the health and resilience of the orbital environment, to prevent this house of cards from collapsing during the next solar storm.

This article, “Low Earth Orbit Satellite House of Cards: Will Elon Musk’s Starlink Crash Cause a Chain Reaction of Satellites in 3 Days?” first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.