ETH price movement has recently attracted a lot of attention. Looking at the 1-hour candlestick chart, the price is oscillating around 3020, closely hugging the upper Bollinger Band at 3025.36, which indeed indicates overbought signals. On the technical indicators, although MACD is still in positive territory, the narrowing of DIF and DEA is quite evident, and the bullish momentum is waning. From a purely technical perspective, the short-term pullback pressure is significant, with support levels possibly around 2971, and in a more pessimistic scenario, it could touch 2950.

However, relying solely on candlestick charts and indicators is not comprehensive enough. On-chain data also reveals some clues—over the past day, the ETH holdings of several large institutional wallets have decreased noticeably, and there are signs of capital flow changes. On the surface, this looks like big players are cashing out profits at high levels. Coupled with the news environment, the global regulatory landscape is indeed tightening, and statements from US regulators have also raised market caution. Retail investor sentiment will naturally be affected.

Interestingly, every time regulatory pressure mounts, it often turns into a shakeout. Small retail investors are scared out, while institutions are actually preparing for subsequent low-position layouts.

From a trading perspective, strategies at this level may need to be differentiated. Short-term traders might consider reducing their positions appropriately during this opportunity; there's no need to hold stubbornly. But if you are a medium- to long-term holder, you should instead be prepared and view the decline as a window to add positions. The fundamentals of Ethereum itself are still intact, and upgrade expectations remain. The adjustments by institutions are more tactical. Both topping out and bottom fishing require rhythm—don't let short-term volatility hijack the overall direction.