#Strategy加码BTC配置 The Federal Reserve dot plot is about to be released. Is the dovish camp gaining the upper hand, or are hawks still holding firm? This question concerns the overall market rhythm.

Let's look at the current situation. As of January 2, 2026, the federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75%. Last year, it was only cut once (by 25 basis points), and since then, there has been no movement. The December dot plot shows that for all of 2025, the rate is expected to stay within this 25 basis point range, with expectations hovering around 3.4%. Meanwhile, inflation data remains sticky at 2.4%, and GDP growth is steady at 2.3% — the Fed is clearly not in a hurry.

Major Wall Street institutions now have differing opinions. Let's look at the numbers:

**Optimistic for rate cuts** — Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect two rate cut opportunities this year (25 basis points each in March and June), bringing the rate down to 3.00%-3.25%.

**Conservative** — JPMorgan only dares to bet on one 25 basis point cut.

**Extreme divergence** — Some predict zero cuts, while others fantasize about a significant 150 basis point reduction. After Chair Yellen took office (Powell stepped down in May), many dovish analysts are betting on more aggressive moves.

But what does reality look like? While institutions like Moody’s imagine three cuts of 75 basis points each, citing potential weakening employment and political pressure, the facts are clear — prices remain sticky, and economic resilience persists. Therefore, the pace of rate cuts is destined to be cautious and slow.

**Key date: The FOMC meeting on January 27-28 will reveal the answer.**

Crypto enthusiasts should pay close attention, as interest rate policies directly influence the sentiment of assets like $BTC, $ETH, and $FIL. When the market swings between dovish and hawkish stances, your investment strategy must also adjust accordingly. Buckle up — market volatility in the coming period will be significant.