#数字资产动态追踪 Will there really be a rate cut in January? Wake up, it's time to get prepared!

The latest data from CME FedWatch Tool has been released, and the results caught many off guard—only a 14.9% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year. In other words, this number can be practically ignored.

Conversely, the probability of holding rates steady is as high as 85.1%. Most likely, the Fed will keep rates unchanged. For those eagerly expecting a "New Year Rate Cut Red Envelope," it's like a cold shower.

**How will this ultimately affect the crypto market?** Several real-world questions stand before us:

**First, the enthusiasm for long positions at the beginning of the year has been directly dampened.** Many entered the market with the expectation that the Fed would loosen policy and liquidity would be abundant. Now that expectations have been dashed, there’s no reason for additional funds to enter in the short term. Major players are watching and waiting—who wants to take the lead in buying? Chips are starting to change hands and consolidate, and the market lacks momentum.

**Second, the mountain of high interest rates still looms overhead.** As long as there is no clear timetable for a rate cut, tightening policies will continue to exert pressure. Risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which rely on loose liquidity, are now losing that support. Short-term rebounds are becoming more difficult, and mainstream cryptocurrencies face ongoing pressure.

**Third, focus should shift to March.** A rate cut in January is now basically unlikely. The next key event is the Federal Reserve meeting in March. That’s when the market will truly start to battle, and the current volatility is just the prelude.

**In summary: don’t wait for January’s favorable conditions.** The next phase is to "watch for signals." Until the rate cut path is fully clarified, don’t expect a violent upward surge. It’s more likely to be a range-bound oscillation with chips rotating—blindly chasing the rise will only turn you into cannon fodder.

**Final advice:** Stay cautious, don’t be led by daily fluctuations. Wait for genuine trading signals before considering action. Steadiness is always better than gambling on luck.