#Strategy加码BTC配置 CME Federal Funds Futures data shows an 85.1% probability of maintaining interest rates in January, with only a 14.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut. In other words, the early-year expectation of rate cuts has basically been dashed.

What does this mean? It’s a significant impact on the crypto world.

First, the imagination of short-term liquidity has been shattered. Many funds entering the market were betting on the central bank’s "good start" with easing. Once this near-term expectation is confirmed to be broken, the market’s short-term volatility loses an important pillar. Large investors are more inclined to hold steady rather than take risks and attack.

Second, the pressure of high interest rates will persist. As long as there is no clear signal of rate cuts, the idea that "high interest rates suppress risk assets" remains valid. For $BTC, which requires ample liquidity, this is an ongoing background pressure.

Where is the real uncertainty? March and beyond. January is destined to be a wait-and-see period; all eyes must shift to the next policy window. That will be the true stage for bulls and bears to compete.

Overall, don’t expect too much from violent surges in the short term. The more likely rhythm is structural oscillation and reorganization of positions. The performance of $ETH $SOL is also constrained by this broader context. Waiting is wiser than waiting to be cut.