Bloomberg 2026 Outlook Report: US Stocks Continue to Rise, Gold Expected to Reach $5000

The first trading day of 2026 officially begins today. Facing a new year, have you prepared a new investment strategy? Bloomberg’s annual outlook report summarizes over 700 forecasts from Wall Street investment banks, revealing the views of the most outstanding and intelligent figures in the financial industry about the coming year. Below is a summarized overview from Chain News.

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Wall Street 2026 Outlook: AI Leadership and Asset Allocation Strategies

As the first trading day of 2026 officially kicks off, global financial markets, after experiencing volatility over the past year, are迎來新的機遇與挑戰。According to Bloomberg’s comprehensive forecast reports from over 700 top Wall Street institutions, the market generally adopts a “cautiously optimistic” attitude for the new year, believing that economic growth will demonstrate resilience. Despite ongoing geopolitical risks and trade barriers, supported by fiscal policies and unprecedented AI capital expenditures, the global economic cycle is expected to continue. However, widespread asset overvaluation and potential inflation stickiness imply that investors need to adopt more flexible and diversified allocation strategies. This article will analyze Wall Street’s in-depth perspectives on macroeconomics, AI industry development, and various asset classes to help readers grasp the investment trends for 2026.

Macroeconomics and AI Drivers: Growth from Capital Expenditure

Wall Street’s basic scenario forecasts indicate that in 2026, the global economy will be driven by “capital expenditure” and “policy support” as dual engines. Among them, artificial intelligence is seen as a key productivity booster. Major institutions generally believe that the large-scale investments in AI industry are not bubbles but foundational to supporting multiple industries and even the global economy. Fidelity explicitly states that AI will be the decisive theme of the 2026 stock market. Although valuations of some tech giants are high, market consensus believes that the revolutionary applications of this technology will continue to drive corporate profits, even surpassing traditional macro hurdles like tariffs. JPMorgan Wealth Management also emphasizes that the biggest risk currently is “failing to participate” in the dividends of this transformative technology.

Monetary Policy and Inflation Outlook: Rate Cut Expectations and Reality Gap

In terms of monetary policy, aside from the Bank of Japan, major global central banks tend toward easing, but persistent inflation may limit the extent of rate cuts. The report analyzes that although inflation peaks have passed, trade protectionism and structural issues in the labor market (such as immigration policies) will slow the decline of prices. This leads to expectations of a “steepening yield curve”: short-term interest rates are suppressed by rate cuts, but long-term rates are supported by fiscal spending and inflation concerns. For investors, this means that while bonds remain a source of income, their effectiveness as a hedge against stocks may be challenged. The US dollar is also expected to weaken in a loose environment, benefiting emerging market currencies.

Asset Allocation Strategies: Diversification and the Potential of Precious Metals

Facing the high valuation of US stocks, Wall Street investment banks unanimously recommend a “diversified investment” strategy. Morgan Stanley forecasts the S&P 500 index will rise to 7,800 points in the next 12 months but also warns to pay attention to opportunities as AI applications expand into other industries, avoiding over-concentration in the seven major tech giants. Meanwhile, UBS and BlackRock highlight the potential for a rebound in Chinese tech and Japanese stocks. Notably, the outlook for precious metals is highly optimistic. JPMorgan has significantly raised its gold target price to $5,000 by the end of 2026, believing that under central bank demand and the dollar depreciation outlook, gold’s role as a key diversification tool will become even more solid.

2026 Risks: Policies, Artificial Intelligence, Geopolitics

As central banks cut rates, companies believe inflation may rise, and trade barriers could become catalysts for higher inflation. Implementing stimulus policies at this stage of the economic cycle may lead to overheating. Whether or not bubbles exist, huge expenditures to promote AI, coupled with uncertain returns, cause concern among companies. The potential impact of this technology on the labor market and existing business models is also worrying. Additionally, analysts warn not to underestimate the possibility of geopolitical or trade-related shocks.

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