2026-01-01 23:21:04

The interest rate cut in December 2025 unexpectedly became a delayed explosive bomb. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.50%-3.75%. At first glance, this seems like good news, but the market's reaction was quite lukewarm—Bitcoin actually fell by 2.8%, and Ethereum dropped nearly 3.6%.

There are interesting contradictions here:

On one hand, on-chain data tells a different story. Whales have accumulated over $2 billion worth of Ethereum, with about 70% of ETH derivatives positions being long. Large investors are actively positioning, and this signal is very clear.

On the other hand, retail investors and the market are not following suit. Why?

First, everyone already knew that this rate cut was coming, and the price may have already priced it in. Second, although the Fed cut rates, its language about the future was very cautious, even mentioning economic risks. This statement alone is enough to pour cold water on optimism. Plus, macroeconomic uncertainties, recession fears, and stock market volatility are much more influential than the rate cut itself.

What does this indicate? The market has become more complex. Pure monetary policy signals can no longer directly drive prices; investors are starting to focus on fundamentals and actual demand rather than mechanically following policy trends.

But this doesn’t mean rate cuts are useless. The problem is, liquidity transmission has a delay. Historically, after each rate cut, the significant increase in liquidity entering the crypto market often takes several months. The chain from policy → banking system → institutional investors → retail investors can take anywhere from three months to half a year. So, the current lack of reaction is actually a buildup of energy.

From this perspective, 2026 will be very interesting. Policy support has already been laid out, institutions are stockpiling, and the true release of liquidity is still ahead. The combination of macro policies and micro on-chain behavior could lay a strong structural foundation for the crypto market.

BTC0.97%

ETH0.96%

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PortfolioAlert

· 3h ago

Cutting interest rates is actually a bad thing for the market, which is indeed absurd. Whales are hoarding, retail investors are selling at a loss. Stories from two worlds. The difference this time is that everyone has become smarter and no longer follows policies blindly. When liquidity truly starts to splash, that will be the real show. There is real hope for 2026; institutions have laid out a deep strategic game. Currently appearing indifferent is actually just building up momentum. The idea that prices have already been digested makes sense; the market isn't that naive. But we still need to beware of black swans; there are too many uncertainties in macroeconomics.

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AltcoinHunter

· 3h ago

Big whales are eating meat, while our retail investors are still looking at market meme charts. The gap is really outrageous. --- It's "delayed liquidity release" again. Why do I feel like we're always waiting for this "later" part? --- Honestly, even after interest rate cuts, cryptocurrencies still fall. This really has a bit of a breakout vibe... but I still choose to believe in 2026. --- A $2 billion ETH buy order—that signal is clear enough, I just worry retail investors might react too slowly. --- The problem is I have no money to buy in right now. Watching the whales stockpile makes me anxious. Who can save this small retail investor? --- Is macro policy signaling invalid? Or are we all too smart, having already digested it in advance... --- I respect this analysis, but I really want to know when liquidity will truly start to be released, not waiting another half year. --- Policy → Banks → Institutions → Retail investors. How fast does this chain need to go for us to get a sip of the soup?

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StealthMoon

· 3h ago

The whales are quietly buying, while retail investors are still hesitating. This is the current situation. The rate cut doesn't seem to have an immediate effect; it's actually waiting for the true liquidity wave. Let's wait and see in .

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TokenEconomist

· 3h ago

actually, the liquidity transmission lag is the key variable here—think of it like traditional banking, but replace the fed funds rate adjustment with smart contract incentives. ceteris paribus, we should see inflows hit crypto markets in q2/q3 2026, not immediately.

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BasementAlchemist

· 3h ago

Big investors are stockpiling while we're taking losses—that's the gap.

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MetaMisery

· 4h ago

Big whales are eating meat, while we are drinking soup—classic information gap game. Retail investors are still watching interest rate cut news, while institutions have quietly accumulated $2 billion worth of ETH. The gap is incredible. I've heard the excuse of liquidity delay too many times. Still, the old saying: optimism is fine, but the wallet is the real thing. Wait, isn’t this logic reversed? When big players are optimistic, the market drops—could they be inducing a bear trap? Policy groundwork, institutional hoarding, delayed release... sounds good, but let’s see if 2026 really arrives first. Interest rate cuts should be good news, but instead, the market falls—showing that there’s no confidence at all. That’s the most heartbreaking part.

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