Ethereum has been fluctuating around $2,980 in the past couple of days. On the surface, it seems calm, but if you delve into on-chain data and the futures market, you can sense the undercurrents. At the start of the new year, the direction may soon be decided.

Let's first discuss the two most critical price points — these will determine whether there will be a big move next.

If it breaks downward, $2,900 is a key threshold. Technically, this is a support level, and psychologically as well. Once broken, it could trigger a liquidation of about $784 million in long positions, potentially leading to a sharp decline. Conversely, looking upward, $3,100 is a recent strong resistance level. If it can break through, it could trigger a liquidation of $923 million in short positions, indicating a short covering rally.

What is the current market situation? Let's look at several dimensions —

The price is around 2983, oscillating within the 2800 to 3000 range. Market sentiment is extremely fearful, with the greed index at just 21, which is usually a signal. On-chain activity is actually quite good, with daily transaction counts hitting a new high of 2.2 million, and Gas fees are ridiculously low, averaging only $0.17, indicating healthy network operation. On the capital side, there is some pressure — spot ETF saw a net outflow of $72.06 million yesterday, suggesting short-term institutional profit-taking. Last quarter, it fell 28.28%, and many risks have already been released.

Based on these observations, there are two possible strategies —

The first is bullish. Wait for the price to confirm a breakout above the $3,000 integer level, then enter after it stabilizes, targeting above $3,100. This scenario is best confirmed with on-chain data, such as increased whale activity or trading volume. The second is aggressive shorting. If it breaks below $2,900, there may be little support below, so caution is needed.

At this point in time, market polarization is particularly obvious. Both bulls and bears are holding back, waiting to see who will break the deadlock first.