【The Major Technical Cycle Signal Emerges, Will History Repeat This Time?】

The 10-week and 50-week moving averages of Bitcoin have just experienced a critical crossover. This is not some flashy short-term technical indicator, but a truly long-term signal — every time it appears, the market has undergone intense volatility.

Looking back at the data, history gives us a very clear answer:

In September 2014? Bitcoin fell 67%. June 2018? Fell 54%. The extreme market in March 2020? Fell 53%. And in January 2022, there was a sharp 64% correction.

The interesting part is that these times were not mild technical shakeouts, but real deep adjustments. The market offered little buffer space.

If history repeats itself this time, following past patterns, we might face a retracement of about 50% to 60%. In USD terms, Bitcoin’s target range would be between $38,000 and $50,000. It sounds frightening, but this is the information provided by the technical analysis.

But there is a particularly important detail: technical signals themselves are not prophets; they are just risk alarms. What truly determines your profit or loss is often not the market’s direction, but whether you manage your positions well in a high-volatility environment. Traders who lose their rhythm and follow the herd during intense fluctuations are often the biggest losers.

The current judgment is: the trend itself has not been fully "falsified," and the long-term story may still be ongoing. But the risks in front of us are already clearly marked. Everyone should be aware of what preparations to make.