Talking about my years of ups and downs in the crypto world, I have actually taken many wrong turns. In 2018, I borrowed 200,000 yuan to enter the market, and the painful experience during the first 40 days still makes me break out in cold sweat when I think about it—my account plummeted straight down to 120,000. During that time, I would stare at the K-line chart until dawn every night, review my trades until I was exhausted, and only then realize that all the indicators I was using were just clutter. I compiled my failure cases into three thick notebooks, studying page by page to find out where I went wrong.

After 90 days, a miracle happened. When my account exceeded 20 million, I didn’t go crazy; I calmly withdrew half of the profits. That’s when I understood: the crypto market is never a casino, but an arena of cognition and disciplined execution. Those who make money are not relying on luck, but on respect for the market and strict adherence to rules.

**Understand market signals, don’t be fooled by appearances**

When the market crashes wildly, how can you quickly judge whether the coins you hold are worth holding onto? Here’s a very practical method: when Bitcoin drops more than 10% in a single day, pay attention to your holdings. If it only drops 2 to 3 points, and the trading volume shrinks to about one-third of the usual, it often indicates that the big players are suppressing prices to lock in positions. Remember this point—those coins that land hard during a big drop tend to surge the most when the rebound comes. Blindly cutting positions is a bad idea; patience and holding on is the way to catch the wave.

**Replace complex indicators with simple rules**

Now I only look at two lines: the 5-day moving average as a short-term life line, and the 20-day moving average as a mid-term guide. If the price stays above these lines, I hold; once it falls below, I cut my losses decisively—it's that simple. The performance of that altcoin last year validated this system—each time it tested the 20-day line three times without breaking, it eventually surged by 200%. Many people like to pile on various indicators, but that often leads to analysis paralysis. The most effective trading rules are usually the simplest.

**Beware of false signals during the main upward wave**

The real main upward wave is gentle; it’s the sudden surges with huge volume that are the most dangerous. When you see the price repeatedly hitting new highs but trading volume shrinking, that’s a sign the trend is about to end. My strict rule now is: hold during volume-contracted rises, sell during volume-expanding declines, and cut losses immediately if losses exceed 5%, with no exceptions.