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Recently, I've been watching the POLYX market and noticed a clear divergence between spot and quarterly contracts.
Specifically, the spot price is listed at 0.06 USDT, while the quarterly contract is around 0.06072 USDT, leaving a gap of about 0.00072 USDT. Additionally, with the current hourly funding rate annualized at around 6%, it seems possible to exploit this difference for some profit.
**The fundamental logic of arbitrage is quite straightforward**—buy the spot and simultaneously open an equivalent short contract to lock in the price difference. When the contract expires or the spread narrows, you can capture this 1.2% profit. During this period, you can also continuously earn funding fees, effectively creating multiple layers of income.
**Calculating further**, after deducting bilateral trading fees and funding costs—roughly 0.2%—holding the position for 30 days yields a net profit of about 1.5%-2%, which annualizes to approximately 18%-24%. From a risk perspective, the main concerns are withdrawal restrictions imposed by the exchange or margin pressure during extreme unidirectional market movements, but overall, these risks are manageable.
**However, my current decision is to wait and observe**. The reason is quite straightforward—POLYX's absolute profit potential is too small (only 0.00072 USDT), and its liquidity is inferior to major cryptocurrencies, so the spread may not quickly converge to break even. Most importantly, I prefer to stay calm and review the situation rather than chase tiny opportunities; I’ll wait until market sentiment stabilizes.