Tesla's peak is already here. I called both the bottom and the top—check my previous analysis.

The thesis breaks down like this: Tesla's business innovation has plateaued. The stock ran into serious resistance levels while market sentiment got way ahead of fundamentals. Add in trade tariffs and China's manufacturing restrictions, and you get a perfect setup for a pullback.

It's straightforward when you look at the numbers. The stock was overbought on hype alone. Without meaningful product breakthroughs or margin expansion, there's no fuel left for another leg up. The headwinds from trade policy and competition in key markets are real constraints on growth.

The chart tells the story if you zoom out and look at the actual business metrics. Sometimes the simplest analysis is the right one.