Market data shows that there is an 85.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January next year, with only a 14.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. By March next year, the probabilities of a rate cut and maintaining the current rate are nearly equal, both bringing policy direction uncertainty. Investors should pay attention to how this change may impact capital allocation.

RumbleValidator

2025-12-31 00:00:22

Abstract generation in progress

【BlockBeats】Latest market data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January next year is as high as 85.1%, with only a 14.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut. This indicates that maintaining the current policy stance remains the mainstream expectation in the short term.

Looking ahead to March next year, the situation changes. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut rises to 45.2%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 48.3%, indicating that market opinions on the policy direction in late Q1 are still divided. Additionally, the likelihood of a total cut of 50 basis points is small, at only 6.5%.

Overall, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve remaining on hold in the short term is higher, but expectations of rate cuts will gradually increase around spring. For investors concerned with macroeconomic conditions, this shift in policy expectations will directly influence capital allocation strategies.

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GasFeeNightmare

· 01-02 04:00

85% maintain the status quo, this data is really solid, the Federal Reserve is determined to take it slow... spring is the only time for the show

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MechanicalMartel

· 01-01 05:46

85% still needs to hold steady, the Federal Reserve definitely won't move in January.

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gas_fee_therapist

· 2025-12-31 00:30

Hold steady in January, only see the real results in March... An 85% probability indicates the Federal Reserve is still observing, just wait for inflation data.

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It's the same old script again, play dead first, then start pretending to understand rate cuts in spring...

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45 versus 48, roughly a 50/50 split, this market expectation is quite虚得很呢

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Holding short-term is correct, but once Q1 data comes out, they’ll probably get serious. At that point, the market will explode again.

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Cut 50 basis points directly from 6.5%? Dream on, the Federal Reserve wouldn't be so quick.

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It feels like this data is saying: I’m still thinking... you guys just play around.

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MetaverseHomeless

· 2025-12-31 00:30

85.1% chance of holding steady, only cutting interest rates in spring... With this pace, the Federal Reserve has really understood the market psychology.

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DaisyUnicorn

· 2025-12-31 00:11

85.1% vs 14.9%, this probability gap... The Federal Reserve is really playing "flower language governance," sticking to the same old tactic of being tough first and soft later.

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HodlOrRegret

· 2025-12-31 00:10

Wait, 85% remains unchanged? Then I should give up this month, I was still hoping for a surprise in the New Year.

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