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Many friends ask me: With the Federal Reserve starting QE next year, is the Bitcoin bear market about to end?
My view is very straightforward—Bitcoin has not entered a bear market at all, and this bull market rally is not over yet. The current correction is just a phase of consolidation before reaching the top, and the true bottom of the bear market won't appear until the first quarter of 2026.
The past three months have indeed been disappointing. From October to December, Bitcoin's performance was weak, and many of my previous judgments have been challenged by the market. The annual targets of 150,000 and 200,000 have not been met, and these are facts.
But this does not change my long-term outlook. Short-term fluctuations are like noise; the long-term trend is the melody.
From a cycle perspective, Bitcoin's 4-year cycle framework has not broken down; it has only evolved. The magnitude of bear market declines may decrease, and the entire operational mode is gradually shifting from wave-like fluctuations to stepwise rises—sideways for a period, then upward, sideways again, then up again. This is a new change in Bitcoin's cycle characteristics.
From a technical standpoint, classic indicators like the Rainbow Chart and the Shapeshifter Index are now in the dollar-cost averaging zone. What does this mean? At this position, it is actually a relatively ideal time to build positions.
More importantly, new signals are emerging at the institutional level—companies are starting to use cash flow to allocate Bitcoin, and this attitude shift is worth noting. Bottoming in a bear market and chasing gains in a bull market are completely different strategies. The current logic of action seems to lean more toward the former.
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150,000, 200,000 are gone, and now I just want to talk about stepwise rise. Are you comforting us?
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Just say it if institutions are deploying, we've retail investors already exhausted from bottom-fishing.
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It sounds reasonable, but I still don't believe the next bear cycle will wait two more years.
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So is dollar-cost averaging the right move now? I lost all my money, and you're just relaxed.
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Think from another perspective, if you're so sure, why did you still get caught in a trap from October to December?
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Rainbow chart investment interval talk, I've heard it a hundred times already, huh.
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Wait, corporate cash flow deployment has nothing to do with us small investors, I still have to rely on credit cards.
Stop brainwashing. Where's the promised 150,000?
Institutions are deploying cash flow, huh? Retail investors like us should wait.
Q1 2026? Then I need to buy a few more bottoms.
This round doesn't really look like a bear market, more like a prelude to harvesting the leek crop.
Waiting until 2026? That would require quite a lot of resilience.
Institutions are accumulating, I believe that. Watching the trend does seem a bit interesting.
The 150,000 and 200,000 jump tickets were missed, and now they say we're not in a bear market, haha.
But the idea of a dollar-cost averaging period is okay; anyway, you have to buy when it dips.
A period of rise followed by a period of decline, it sounds pretty good, but will the coins really behave so obediently?
The goal of 150,000 or 200,000 hasn't been achieved—how did it suddenly turn into "long-term judgment is fine"?
Wait, are the institutions' current layouts real? I haven't seen any obvious signals.
Honestly, I just want to know if it can bounce back in these two months; everything else is just empty talk.
First quarter of 2026... Good grief, I guess I have to wait another two years. Just stay alive for now.
If it's a dollar-cost averaging period, then keep doing it. Anyway, I can't lose more.
First quarter of 2026, right? I'll note down this date.
About the dollar-cost averaging range... Are institutions really laying in wait?
It rises for a while, then falls for a while—this cycle theory is starting to play again.
No matter how nicely you put it, it doesn't change the fact that the market has been weak over the past three months.
Institutional layout? Then I need to see their actual actions before I say anything.