Hello everyone, I am host wlj, a peer dedicated to equipping you with cognitive algorithms, not just watching a few K-lines. I have summarized the five questions given by the host. I hope it helps you. Stay for 10 minutes to add an extra layer of security to your future investments.

1. Regarding the questions from the host; does the "four-year cycle" in the crypto market still exist?

My humble opinion: It exists, but its "form" is fading, and its "spirit" is evolving.

Fading of the "form": This refers to the global macro cycles centered around the Federal Reserve (such as interest rates, liquidity), whose influence has far surpassed Bitcoin halving. The inflow and outflow of institutional capital no longer strictly follow a four-year rigid rhythm but are closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and compliance progress. Halving has shifted from being an "engine" to a "turbocharger"—it still provides additional power but no longer solely determines the train's direction and speed.

Evolution of the "spirit": Behind the four-year cycle is the "bull-bear alternation," and the market's core still exists. But future "bulls" will be structural (e.g., some assets hitting new highs, others zeroing out). "Bears" will be more like clearing phases, representing the elimination of poor projects rather than a full-scale crash. From an ecological cycle perspective, it’s shifting from "migration of all living beings" to "natural selection within species."

This is essentially a "revolution in market efficiency," similar to how new media (like social algorithm platforms) replaced old media (like newspapers and TV). In the old media era, information was released uniformly, and market participants received information simultaneously, reacting in sync and as a whole. In the new media era, information is algorithmically pushed instantaneously and personalized to different circles, leading to differentiated, structural reactions—some act instantly, others remain indifferent. Today’s crypto market is in this "new media" era, where capital and information flow follow rules of higher efficiency and greater differentiation.

2. Regarding the questions from the host; how does institutionalization reshape the entire market’s pricing model?

My humble opinion: It shifts from "narrative discounting" to "cash flow and risk premium discounting."

Old model (retail-led): Price = Macro narrative (like Metaverse, Web3) x Market sentiment (FOMO/FUD). Pricing is vague, with huge volatility.

New model (institution-led): Price = Expected cash flows (like staking yields, protocol revenues) + Growth options (like ecosystem potential) - Regulatory and liquidity risk premiums.

Specific points:

1. Valuation tools: Institutions will introduce traditional financial valuation models (such as DCF, PE comparisons) to evaluate staking assets and Layer 1 (one) public chains.
2. Increased correlation: Short-term correlation between crypto assets and US stocks (especially tech stocks) and US bond yields will strengthen because they are incorporated into the same macro analysis framework.
3. Volatility structuring: Overall volatility decreases due to large capital deposits, but the volatility differences among sectors and individual coins will sharply expand, making research (Alpha tokens) crucial.

3. Regarding the questions from the host; why is traditional finance highly favored while crypto assets are cooling off?

My humble opinion: This is the time lag between "building the bridge" and "crossing the river," as well as the gap between expectations and reality.

The "hotness" of traditional finance is about planning for the future: banks and asset management giants are building the "financial infrastructure bridge" (such as custody, ETFs, derivatives). Their "heat" is a strategic positioning for future market share and new asset classes. Once the bridge is built, it doesn’t mean large-scale traffic will immediately flow in.

The "cooling" of crypto assets reflects current reality: current prices reflect macro headwinds, prior bubble corrections, and the lack of new narratives. This is precisely the re-evaluation of existing (old mode) value before the "bridge" is completed.

The core contradiction now is: institutional "strategic enthusiasm" coexists with market "trading cold," which proves the depth of the turning point. When more workers are building the bridge than travelers crossing it, it indicates that a new era blueprint is being drawn, not just an extension of the old.

4. Regarding the questions from the host; where will the new growth logic of the crypto market come from?

My humble opinion: From "financial Lego" driven by speculation to "real-world financial utility engine."

Old logic: Based on excess liquidity and narrative innovation, a "financial Lego" circulating within a closed ecosystem.

New logic (three sources):

First source; productivity contribution: Blockchain as the trust and settlement infrastructure is truly beginning to optimize efficiency and reduce costs in traditional finance, supply chains, intellectual property, etc., capturing value (such as real assets RWA tokenization).

Second source; capturing institutional dividends: Compliant DeFi protocols and regulated staking services will absorb and transform the huge financial demands spilling over from the traditional world due to compliance needs.

Third source; global application of programmable currencies: USD stablecoins will become the "new dollar" for global digital trade and payments, with network effects and on-chain financial ecosystems fostering cross-border growth.

5. Regarding the questions from the host; under new forms, how should individual investors respond to the final form of Web3?

My humble opinion: Transition from "hunter" to "herdsman" and "ecologist."

Mindset shift and capability upgrade:

Mindset shift: Abandon the lottery mentality of "hundredfold myth," and accept the value-added mindset of "seeking high-quality assets with 20-50% annualized returns."

Capability upgrade: Focus on three points:

1. Learn to read financial reports: Analyze project revenues, cash flows, staking yields, governance participation, and other fundamentals.
2. Identify "bridges" and "toll stations": Focus on those becoming institutional infrastructure "bridges" (like core public chains, mainstream stablecoins) and those earning "tolls" in the new ecosystem (like top DeFi projects, key middleware).
3. Manage "differentiation risk": Abandon "casting a wide net" investment approach, adopt a "core + satellite" strategy. Core holdings—mainstream assets (like BTC, ETH)—to ensure not falling behind; satellite holdings—deep research into a few understandable ecosystems (like GT)), aiming for excess returns. In the future: assets with no cash flow, no governance rights, and no compliance paths will be (permanently) marginalized.

My personal humble opinion: Currently, fellow traders should follow a three-step approach.
1. The crypto market is transforming from a "social experiment" driven by retail sentiment and internal narratives into an "emerging financial market" driven by institutional capital and real utility. This transition is profound and irreversible.
2. The cycle's form is changing, but the core of bull-bear alternation remains. The future game will shift from "who runs faster" to "who sees more clearly."
3. For each of us, it’s about transforming from "a speculator seeking hundredfold returns" to "a value herdsman and ecological planner based on in-depth research."

Thank you all for your time. Cycles may morph, but they will not disappear; markets may cool, but construction never stops. When we understand the laws of "form dispersing and spirit gathering" and grasp the rhythm of "building bridges and crossing rivers," we are no longer just travelers following the waves but captains of our own cognitive routes. May we walk together wisely in this new era of trading.