Has the four-year cycle of Bitcoin really become invalid? Market battles amid the ETF wave

【Crypto World】Recently, discussions about Bitcoin cycles have become increasingly intense, with the focus on whether the "Four-Year Cycle Theory" we've used for many years still holds.

On one side are the optimistic voices: institutions are continuously entering the market through ETFs, US regulatory attitudes are noticeably relaxing, and global liquidity is still increasing. Under this new combination of strategies, some analysts believe that the upward trend after the halving can last until 2026, potentially extending or breaking the cycle.

On the other side are those who stick to the original logic, arguing that the market has entered a bear market and that traditional cycles are still valid. Both sides have their own data to support their claims, and no one is willing to concede.

The emergence of ETFs has indeed changed the game—massive institutional funds are pouring in, and the market dynamics dominated by retail investors have shifted. But does this mean the cycle is completely invalid, or just extended? The answer may depend on future market performance. In any case, understanding the logic behind these debates can help in formulating your own trading strategies.