The 2026 New Year Market Spectacle Will Begin: Keep a Close Eye on Catalysts Like the Federal Reserve, Tax Reforms, and Options

【Blockchain Rhythm】The OTC trading circle has been discussing a question recently—will the New Year market rally start early? Wintermute's Head of Trading Jake O has given an answer: probably not.

His logic is very clear. Most institutional trading departments are in a wait-and-see mode this week, and the real shift will happen after January 1st. At that time, traders will re-enter the market with a "reset" mindset, and the market's attention will shift from the inertia of year-end actions to a series of upcoming events.

How important are these events? Just look at the start-of-year schedule. The Federal Reserve Chair nominee will be announced soon, and the Supreme Court will also make a statement on tariffs. On the domestic policy front, the "Clarity Act" bill is entering the revision and review stage, and the SLR leverage ratio regulatory requirements will also be updated. There are also many crypto-related topics—MSCI will decide on the 15th whether to include new products in the crypto-related stock index, the FOMC meeting on the 28th will attract usual attention, and by the end of the month on the 30th, U.S. government funding will expire.

What’s more interesting are the timing points. All of this will gradually occur after the narrative of tax-loss selling ends, large-scale options expiration, and the accumulation of bearish positions. In other words, the market's resilience and trading opportunities may be much greater than you imagine.