Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Flip to Accumulation for First Time Since July: What It Means for Price Recovery

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Bitcoin LTHs Flip from Distribution to Accumulation for First Time Since July: Recovery Next? Original Link:

Bitcoin’s Turning Point: LTHs Return to Accumulation

Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) have flipped from distribution to accumulation for the first time since July, marking a potential shift in market sentiment. After BTC reached a peak of $126,000 in early October, the asset experienced sharp declines, falling below $90,000 and trading at $87,932—a drop exceeding 30% from its October high.

On-Chain Data Suggests Selling Phase May Be Easing

Recent on-chain analysis from a prominent crypto analyst reveals that long-term holders (investors holding Bitcoin for more than six months) have begun accumulating again. This change is significant, as LTH behavior often signals Bitcoin’s next major directional move.

The analyst noted that claims of continued heavy selling from long-term holders don’t align with adjusted data. After removing the impact of approximately 800,000 BTC that moved from a major exchange—which had distorted earlier figures—the supply trend showed a clear reversal.

From July 16 onward, the 30-day cumulative change in long-term holder supply remained negative, confirming months of distribution as LTHs steadily reduced their share of total supply. This pattern has now reversed, with roughly 10,700 BTC recently moving back into long-term holding status.

!Bitcoin LTH Supply Change CryptoQuant

While the increase remains modest, it matters. Long-term holders have slowed their selling enough for their total supply to begin rising again, while short-term holders continue to hold. In past cycles, similar shifts have often appeared before consolidation or early recovery phases.

LTH Supply Trends: April to December 2025

From April to July 2025, monthly long-term holder supply changes remained mostly positive, showing steady accumulation that climbed to nearly 400,000 BTC in mid-April. Accumulation cooled temporarily but resumed, rising above 800,000 BTC by June.

After peaking, the trend weakened and turned negative in July, remaining so for several months and reaching below -400,000 BTC in November—a period that coincided with Bitcoin’s weak fourth-quarter performance. The metric has only recently flipped back to positive territory.

Recent Rally: Leverage-Driven, Not Spot-Driven

The positive supply change coincided with a brief price bounce, though the move proved short-lived. Bitcoin jumped approximately $3,000 within hours, but the rally appears to have been driven primarily by derivatives activity rather than spot buying. Open interest rose by roughly $2 billion during the same period.

However, rallies driven by leverage often fade quickly and rarely support strong, lasting recovery. This suggests caution is warranted despite the positive on-chain signal.

Technical Perspective: Key Resistance and Support Levels

Technical analysts are watching several critical levels:

• $90,600: Key resistance area where BTC recently stalled
• $87,800: Weekly open level noted as weak and likely to be tested
• $93,500: Potential continuation target if $90,600 is reclaimed on a 4-hour timeframe
• $87,490 and $86,900: Support levels with potential long opportunities after sweep-and-reversal patterns
• $85,000: Potential target for shorts if $86,900 is lost on higher timeframes

Technical analysts note that low volume and choppy price action during the holiday period suggest reduced risk-taking until market conditions stabilize.

The Bottom Line

The shift in long-term holder behavior from distribution to accumulation represents a meaningful change in market structure. Combined with modest recent price recovery efforts, it suggests conditions may be aligning for consolidation or early recovery. However, the leverage-driven nature of recent rallies and weak technical structure warrant caution. Traders are advised to wait for clearer confirmation before committing significant capital.