The market never moves the way we imagine. After years of trading, I’ve given up the illusion of "precise top-timing" and adopted a more pragmatic methodology: viewing the market as a tug-of-war between smart money and retail investor sentiment.

**The Truth About Accumulation and Distribution**

What does a true bottom look like? It’s often characterized by low-volume oscillations, with volatility so subdued that it’s almost sleep-inducing. Bitcoin around the end of 2022 was doing just that, fluctuating around $16,000. During this dull phase, institutions quietly accumulated positions while retail investors were scared out by stop-loss triggers.

Conversely, the top is prone to certain traps. In November 2021, BTC surged to a new high of $69,000, and FOMO sentiment exploded on social media. But on-chain data had already betrayed the whales—large addresses were continuously reducing their holdings. High volatility coupled with stagnant prices often signals an impending reversal.

**How I Responded**

Setting stop-losses requires skill. Don’t place them at obvious points like previous highs or lows, as they’re easy targets for stop-hunting. Instead, I use support and resistance zones on the weekly chart to set my stops, which helps avoid many false breakouts.

In volume-price analysis, I prioritize the "quality of volume." Moderate increasing volume during an uptrend is a healthy sign, but a sudden surge—like volume tripling in a day—usually indicates a short-term top is near.

**Core Logic of Position Management**

The reason rolling positions can generate big profits is essentially because of risk management. My approach is to use position sizing to replace directional forecasts. In trending markets, I add to positions in stages: limit initial leverage to 3x, and once weekly volume confirms a breakout above the previous high (at least 7 days confirmed), consider increasing to 5x.

Once the target profit is reached, act quickly. For example, if a position gains 50%, immediately reduce by 30% and move the stop-loss to the breakeven point. This locks in core gains, leaving the remaining position free to pursue incremental returns.