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Many people are eagerly awaiting the arrival of the "big market move" after the delivery is completed. So what’s the result? The market is just dawdling here, fluctuating up and down without any clear trend, which is really frustrating. Actually, there’s no need to be impatient. Skilled traders start looking for direction during these volatile periods, while most retail investors waste their bullets during this time, only to regret it when the market truly starts moving.
Today, I’ll reveal a few insider judgment indicators. Mastering these three metrics will help you sniff out opportunities early in such market conditions.
**First, look at the maximum pain price of options.** Many people overlook this, but it’s an important reference for large funds. The biggest pain point after this round of delivery is around $96,000—at this level, the maximum number of options contracts become worthless, maximizing the profits for market makers and big players. Therefore, in the short term, the price will naturally be attracted toward this level. As long as it doesn’t break below the key support level, big funds will be motivated to push the market toward this point, reflecting their true target.
**Next, observe the inflow and outflow of ETF funds.** Although holiday data updates are slow, this is the best window to insight into the true intentions of institutions. Recently, even though the related ETFs managed by BlackRock showed losses on paper, funds continued to flow in steadily, indicating that major institutions remain confident about the future market. If, after the holiday, ETF net inflows increase while prices also rise, it’s a green light signaling institutional entry, and the subsequent market is likely to be strong; conversely, if funds keep flowing out and prices rise, it’s a fake rally, and a correction is probably on the horizon.
**Finally, focus on liquidity recovery.** The lack of liquidity during the holiday was the main reason for the amplified volatility this time. If liquidity quickly recovers after the market reopens, volatility will subside, and that will be the real good opportunity for strategic positioning.
Regarding ETFs, I agree. BlackRock is still buying, which means some people still believe. But I'm worried that once the data comes out after the holiday, it will be a different story.
It's really heartbreaking to see retail investors waste bullets during volatile periods. I'm the kind of fool who used up all my ammunition early.
Many people overlook liquidity issues. The volatility caused by holiday-related dry spells is truly unpredictable and hard to defend against.
Waiting for ETF data after the holiday—that's when we can really gauge institutional attitudes. Right now, it's all guesswork.