A trader asked me: "Teacher, after Bitcoin completed a large-scale delivery, why is there still no movement? Should I take a break?" I couldn't help but laugh— the calmer the market looks, the more frequently whales tend to act. Many people mistakenly think it's a "lying flat" market, but in fact, that is a critical window for whales to set up their positions. I’ve noticed retail investors often fall into two traps: one believes that after delivery, it's safe; the other wavers in the face of market fluctuations and misses the real opportunities.

First, it’s important to clarify—delivery is not the end of the trend, but rather the beginning of a new one. Most retail investors don’t understand the hedging logic of market makers, thinking that once delivery is complete, the risk is gone. But the reality is quite the opposite. Before delivery, market makers hedge their positions to suppress market volatility; after delivery, these positions are closed, and the true supply and demand are revealed. Currently, with the holiday season, the market is mainly driven by retail investors and quantitative algorithms. These funds lack consensus, making them prone to follow the herd and cause stampedes, which can actually increase volatility. Remember when Bitcoin dropped below $88,000 on Christmas Eve? That was a direct reflection of liquidity drying up—just a small sell-off could trigger a chain reaction of declines, which is the first trap most retail investors fall into.

Now, let’s look at what whales are doing—that’s the key. Although on-chain large transfers have decreased during the Christmas holiday, on-chain data never lies: while the annual returns of BlackRock’s related ETF products are negative, they still attracted $25 billion in continuous inflows, showing that institutional long-term allocation enthusiasm remains strong. More importantly, the maximum pain point for this round of options delivery is at $96,000, which directly means whales have a strong incentive to push the price toward this level, because controlling this price can release the greatest market influence.