Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle Analysis: When Will the Next Bull Run Come Based on Historical Data

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced multiple intense price cycles. Each bull run sparks market discussions and attracts new capital inflows. Now, driven by new catalysts, understanding the patterns of these cycles becomes especially important.

How is a Bull Market Defined? On-Chain Data Tells You the Answer

Bitcoin’s bull run essentially is a game of supply scarcity versus demand growth. When exchange BTC balances decline, wallet activity increases, and stablecoin inflows rise, it often signals the beginning of an accumulation phase.

According to the latest on-chain data, Bitcoin’s market cap has surpassed $1.7 trillion, with circulating supply approaching 20 million coins. An RSI indicator above 70 typically indicates strong buying momentum. Additionally, a golden cross between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages has historically been a confirmation signal of an uptrend.

Key indicators to watch include:

• Whale Activity: Changes in large address holdings
• Exchange Outflows: BTC leaving exchanges suggests increased long-term holding intent
• Stablecoin Inflows: Signaling new funds preparing to enter the market

Halving Cycles Drive Bull Markets? Data Speaks

Bitcoin’s supply schedule is designed with a halving mechanism every four years, creating natural supply shocks.

Historical data shows:

• 2012 Halving: BTC surged by 5200%
• 2016 Halving: Approximately 315% increase
• 2020 Halving: About 230% increase

After the April 2024 fourth halving, market reactions were swift. Currently, BTC has risen from around $40,000 at the start of the year to $88,870, an increase of over 130%. While the growth rate has slowed compared to previous halvings, this reflects a maturing market with increasing institutional participation.

What Has Institutional Entry Changed? Looking at ETFs and Capital Flows

In January 2024, the approval of a spot BTC ETF in the US marked a watershed moment in Bitcoin history.

Data shows:

• Net inflows in the first month exceeded $1 billion
• By November, total net inflows reached $2.8 billion, surpassing gold ETFs
• BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone holds over 467,000 BTC

What does this mean? The integration of traditional investment channels allows institutions to participate without directly holding or custody crypto assets, enhancing market liquidity and legitimacy.

Public companies like MicroStrategy are accelerating accumulation, further tightening market supply. Natural supply contraction plus institutional demand creates classic bull market conditions.

Comparing Past Bull Runs: From 2013 to 2024

2013: Wild Growth Period

• Increase: 730% ($145→$1200)
• Catalyst: Early adoption + media attention
• Risk: Mt. Gox exchange hack led to confidence collapse

2017: Retail Explosion

• Increase: 1900% ($1000→$20000)
• Catalyst: ICO craze + improved exchange usability
• Cost: Subsequently dropped 84%, requiring two years for recovery

2021: Institutional Entry

• Increase: 700% ($8000→$64000)
• Catalyst: Purchases by Tesla/Square + inflation expectations
• Turning Point: Energy concerns and regulatory pressures caused corrections

2024-25: Regulatory-Friendly Period

• Increase: 132% ($40,000→$88,870)
• Catalyst: ETF approval + halving + policy expectations
• Characteristics: More stable growth, higher institutional involvement

Where Are the Signals for the Next Bull Run?

Geopolitics and Macro Environment

Changes in US policy could serve as new catalysts. If Bitcoin is incorporated into national strategic reserves (e.g., a proposed purchase plan of one million coins by a senator), it would open a new chapter for government holdings worldwide.

El Salvador and Bhutan have already taken the lead, holding over 18,000 BTC combined. If major economies follow suit, the market size could expand exponentially.

Imagination Space for Technological Upgrades

The potential revival of OP_CAT code could open doors for Bitcoin Layer-2 solutions and DeFi applications. If Bitcoin can handle thousands of transactions per second, its application scenarios will expand dramatically, moving beyond just “digital gold.”

Ongoing Supply Tightness

The next halving is expected around 2028. Before then, if institutions continue net buying and exchange supply keeps decreasing, supply tightness will become more evident.

How to Avoid Being Liquidated During a Bull Run? Practical Tips

Psychological Aspects

• Don’t chase the top: Historically, retail investors who buy 3-5x from the bottom tend to lose in corrections
• Dollar-cost averaging: Build positions gradually rather than all at once
• Set stop-losses: Use automatic stop-loss orders to avoid emotional decisions

Technical Aspects

• Watch key support levels: Defend at round numbers like $85,000, $80,000
• Monitor RSI divergence: If price hits new highs but RSI drops, it may signal a reversal
• Confirm with volume: Breakouts on high volume are more reliable than gentle rises

Asset Allocation

• Avoid all-in Bitcoin: Even if bullish on crypto, diversify into other asset classes
• Take profits periodically: During extreme optimism (RSI > 90), consider partial profit-taking
• Keep cash reserves: Prepare for potential 20-30% pullbacks

Security Tips

• Use hardware wallets for large holdings (cold storage)
• Enable 2FA on exchange accounts
• Regularly review whitelist and withdrawal addresses

Will the Bull Run Continue After 2025?

Based on on-chain data and macro environment signals, we see several positive signs:

1. ETF Market Continues to Expand: Although growth slows, ETF products outside the US are still being approved
2. Institutional Allocation Still Low: Global pension funds and insurance companies have less than 1% of their assets in crypto, leaving room for growth
3. Halving Cycles Remain Valid: While effects diminish over time, the fundamental logic of supply scarcity remains unchanged

Risks also need attention:

• Macroeconomic recession could reduce demand for risk assets
• Sudden regulatory shifts
• Rising concerns over Bitcoin mining energy consumption
• Competition from other coins (Solana, other Layer-1s) may divert capital

Final Judgment: The next bull run is not a question of “if” but “when” and “how high.” If institutions continue to allocate, policies stay friendly, and technology keeps innovating, 2025-2026 could still see a new upward wave. Compared to past bull runs, the gains might be more moderate (100-300% rather than 500%+), with lower volatility—marking a maturing market.

For investors, the key is to abandon the get-rich-quick mentality, adopt a portfolio approach, and avoid gambling psychology.