#通货膨胀与物价 After observing this round of Fed debates, it feels like the market is about to reprice itself. Goolsby is optimistic and predicts a significant rate cut next year, but then votes against it. This "optimistic on paper, cautious in action" attitude actually best reflects the true dilemma faced by the decision-makers—the ghost of inflation has not yet fully dissipated.

What is the key information? Companies and consumers are still frantically worried about prices. What does this mean? It suggests that the market’s expectations for rate cuts may need to be tempered. Those accounts of aggressive traders following the previous hype and making big bets should have felt some pressure recently.

I have been adjusting my follow-trading and position-splitting strategies lately. For traders relying on rate cut logic to go long, I am reducing their allocation weight. Conversely, I am paying more attention to traders who can adapt flexibly to high interest rate environments and are good at bottom-fishing on the left side. The persistent inflation above expectations will continue to disturb market sentiment, and a short-term increase in volatility of risk assets is highly likely.

Instead of chasing after those follow-trading accounts that have already risen, it’s better to wait for new entry signals. Practice has shown me that the most profitable opportunities often appear when the market is most confused—and right now, the division within the Fed decision-making circle itself is the biggest source of confusion.