#美联储降息 Seeing the Fed's recent moves, my first reaction is—this is somewhat similar to the script in 2020, but not exactly the same.

A 25 basis point rate cut is not news in itself; the market has already digested it. What’s truly worth pondering is the $40 billion Treasury reserve management purchase plan. This has been ongoing since December 12 and will continue until April 2026. It’s not a sudden emergency measure but a clear signal—The Federal Reserve is actively adjusting its stance.

Having experienced the 2017 bull market and the 2018 crash, as well as witnessing the frenzy from 2020 to 2021, I’ve learned a simple truth: liquidity is decisive. When the central bank shifts from tightening to net injection, market sentiment changes. The so-called "hidden QE" is essentially a way to avoid calling it QE politically, but the nature of the money hasn’t changed.

The key point is that this policy environment is more moderate than market expectations. There are still two rate cuts expected within the first nine months of 2026, indicating a gradual easing rather than an abrupt halt. For the crypto market, it’s like an invisible hand supporting the floor.

But I want to remind everyone not to see this as a one-way positive. History shows that in an environment of ample liquidity, both risk assets and junk assets tend to be lifted. The ability to select projects wisely is more important than ever.