Ken Griffin's Quantum Computing Bet: Two Explosive Stocks Wall Street Believes Will Climb Higher

The Citadel Hedge Fund Move That Caught Attention

Billionaire Ken Griffin’s Citadel Advisors has a track record that speaks volumes — it outperformed the S&P 500 by 7 percentage points over three years and ranks as the most profitable hedge fund since inception. But what makes his recent third-quarter trades particularly noteworthy isn’t the volume; it’s the conviction behind two quantum computing bets that have already delivered staggering returns.

Griffin’s investment team purchased 51,700 shares of Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) and 122,600 shares of D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS). While these positions are relatively small, the signal is clear: when top-tier hedge fund managers move into emerging technology stocks, Wall Street analysts take notice. Here’s why this move matters.

The Numbers That Turned Heads

Rigetti Computing has surged 3,750% since the start of 2023, and D-Wave Quantum has climbed 1,770% since January 2024. These aren’t modest gains — they represent the kind of momentum that captures institutional attention. Yet both stocks remain in early innings of what analysts believe is an upward trajectory.

According to Street consensus:

• Rigetti Computing: Seven analysts covering the stock project a median target of $40 per share, implying 42% upside from $28. The most bullish case sees $51 (82% upside), while even the most conservative target sits at $35 (25% upside).
• D-Wave Quantum: Eleven analysts maintain a median price target of $40, suggesting 48% upside from its current $27. The bull case reaches $48 (77% upside), and the bear case holds at $35 (30% upside).

Why These Two Companies Matter Differently

Rigetti’s Vertical Integration Advantage

Rigetti manufaccts superconducting quantum processors and controls its entire supply chain — from hardware design to cloud-based software infrastructure. The company pioneered multi-chip quantum processor architecture, giving it potential scalability advantages. Its approach to quantum computing through vertical integration means cost efficiencies and tighter control over product development.

However, the valuation reality is jarring. Rigetti’s price-to-sales ratio sits at 1,080 — roughly 10 times higher than Palantir, the most expensive stock in the S&P 500. This extreme premium is difficult to justify, especially when experts widely believe commercially viable quantum computers remain one to two decades away. The quantum market itself will be 450 times smaller than artificial intelligence by 2030, according to industry projections.

D-Wave’s Different Technology Path

D-Wave chose quantum annealing over gate-based architectures. While this limits the types of problems it can solve, quantum annealers excel at optimization challenges and offer practical utility today — D-Wave currently deploys systems with over 4,000 physical qubits compared to Rigetti’s roadmap of only 1,000-qubit systems by 2027.

Revenue growth looks impressive on paper: Q3 revenue doubled to $3.7 million. Yet the company burned $18.1 million in non-GAAP losses during the same period. The real concern isn’t operational — it’s shareholder dilution. D-Wave’s outstanding shares have increased 31% this year and 117% over two years, a sign the company compensates for losses by diluting existing investors.

The valuation speaks even louder. D-Wave trades at 325 times sales, which while cheaper than Rigetti, remains absurdly expensive for a company in an emerging market projected to grow just 21% annually through the decade’s end.

The Valuation Wall Most Investors Miss

Both stocks share a critical vulnerability: unsustainable valuations disconnected from near-term commercial reality. While Ken Griffin’s moves suggest long-term conviction, neither company generates profits at a scale that justifies current prices. Analysts project continued upside, but history suggests that before these stocks reach their full potential, they will likely experience corrections of 80% to 90%.

This isn’t pessimism — it’s mathematics. Growth stocks cycle through boom-and-bust phases, and quantum computing, despite its promise, remains a speculative frontier. Investors chasing these names should either wait for a more reasonable entry point or maintain only microscopic positions they can afford to lose completely.