Lean Hog Futures Surge on Thursday Trading Session

Thursday proved to be a bullish day for lean hog futures traders, with most contracts posting gains between 30 and 65 cents throughout the session. However, the broader market backdrop presents a more nuanced picture when examining USDA pricing data and supply metrics.

Price Action and Official Valuations

The USDA's national base hog price, reported Thursday afternoon, sat at $71.87 per cwt—a retreat of $2.74 from Wednesday's close. Meanwhile, the CME Lean Hog Index declined another 40 cents on November 18, settling at $86.27. This divergence between futures strength and spot market weakness highlights the complex dynamics currently at play in hog markets.

Pork carcass cutout values reflected similar pressure, with Thursday's PM report showing a $2.93 decline to $90.23 per cwt. The composition of this decline tells an important story: while loin and ham primals managed gains, the belly primal took a significant hit, dropping $16.77. This selective weakness in certain cuts points to shifting demand patterns across different pork products.

Supply and Slaughter Data

Federally inspected hog slaughter reached 494,000 head on Thursday alone, bringing the weekly total to 1.976 million head year-to-date. This represents a 4,000-head increase compared to the prior week and 30,598 head above the same week last year—indicating steady processing volumes throughout the season.

Export sales data from the week of October 2 showed 32,705 MT of pork moved, marking a pullback from the previous week's levels, while actual shipments totaled 29,209 MT during that same period.

Futures Settlement Overview

The December 2025 Lean Hog contract closed Thursday's session at $79.475, up $0.625 from the previous day. February 2026 Hogs followed suit at $79.650, also gaining $0.625, while April 2026 Hogs advanced $0.650 to close at $83.725. The consistent upside across the curve suggests market participants are pricing in potential support levels ahead.