Bitcoin repeatedly swings around $87,000. Today is a critical moment—the largest options contract in history (about $23.6 billion) is expiring, and both bulls and bears are entering a decisive battle.

The market is now extremely fragmented. The scale of call options is more than 2.6 times that of put options, with over $21.7 billion in long positions betting that by the end of the year, the price can surge to the $100,000 to $125,000 range; but on the spot market, sentiment is sluggish, having reached freezing point.

Where is the real danger? The main goal of market makers is very clear—during liquidity droughts over the holiday, they aim to push the price to $95,000 at the lowest cost, causing most options contracts to expire worthless, so they can easily collect premiums. This $95,000 is the biggest pain point for this delivery.

Three deadly signals cannot be ignored:

First, bullish orders are clustered around the $100,000 to $125,000 high levels, while bearish orders are concentrated between $75,000 and $86,000. Whether it's retail traders chasing the rally or forced stop-losses in the order book, all are seen as prey by institutions.

Second, the implied volatility has dropped over 10% in the past month. Such a low-volatility environment often breeds intense two-way shocks.

Third, the Gamma value approaching expiration has surged. Coupled with the holiday liquidity shortage, market makers' hedging operations are especially prone to triggering "pinning" phenomena, with sudden fluctuations of $3,000 to $5,000 likely to occur.

Remember the USDT trading pair on a certain major exchange? At one moment, it suddenly spiked to $24,111 and then quickly stabilized—this is a true reflection of liquidity exhaustion.

The three most common pitfalls for retail traders: heavy short positions around $87,000 are vulnerable to being pushed higher and liquidated; chasing longs at $90,000 and then closing early may cause missing out on the rally; heavy positions at $95,000 turn into bagholders at the high.

Risk management must come first. If your position is controlled below 40%, consider closing 20% to 30% of your holdings between $90,000 and $92,000, then close another 30% to 40% between $94,000 and $95,000, and if the price breaks through $95,000, cash out entirely. Those with full positions should immediately implement a phased take-profit plan.

What if the price drops? The $80,000 to $82,000 range is a relatively strong support, and a short-term rebound may occur, but don’t mistake this for a bottoming signal.

Ultimately, options expiration is not about whether the market is bullish or bearish; it’s a contest between mathematics and human nature. Strictly follow your take-profit and stop-loss rules, survive this institution-led stress test, and only then can you seize opportunities in the subsequent market.