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Japan's latest economic data is quite interesting. In December, Tokyo's non-food CPI year-on-year growth rate dropped to 2.3%, significantly easing from 2.8% last month, marking the first signs of cooling since August. Economists had previously expected around 2.5%, so this figure exceeded market expectations.
Specifically, the pressure mainly comes from two areas: a slowdown in food price increases and declining energy costs. The overall inflation rate fell from 2.7% in the same period last year to 2.0%, and the core inflation excluding energy prices also dropped to 2.6%. Tokyo's price trends are generally considered a leading indicator of nationwide inflation.
However, there's a detail that shouldn't be overlooked—despite the decline in inflation, the overall level of 2.0% still exceeds the Bank of Japan's 2% target. In the short term, this provides the central bank with ample reason to continue tightening policies. In other words, although inflation is cooling, it hasn't reached a level that would cause the BOJ to halt rate hikes. This will continue to influence expectations for global liquidity and asset allocation.
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Inflation is still ongoing, and interest rate hikes won't stop. Basically, there's still a story to tell, right?
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The 2.0% target is stuck right at the line, and they absolutely refuse to let it pass. This level of detail is truly impressive. If this continues, when will global liquidity finally loosen?
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Tokyo's prices are considered a leading indicator, so we need to keep a close eye on them. We should recalculate our asset allocation strategy.
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The double whammy of energy and food means it's still not cool enough. The central bank has deliberately left itself an excuse to keep extracting blood.
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This is what you call cooling without stopping. It's a businessman's tactic, but indeed very clever.
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So, even if the numbers look good, it doesn't matter. The Bank of Japan still has to raise interest rates, that's the key.
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Although inflation is falling, the 2% line is still hard to cross. The central bank won't be so kind as to let us go, haha.
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It's the same old trick, when economic data slightly improves, they hype it up, but the policy remains the same old story, a typical data show.
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Energy costs have come down but not enough. The Bank of Japan will definitely keep tightening this round, I bet five bucks.
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They can't hold it anymore. They say the cooling down but keep raising interest rates. Isn't that just betting against us?
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Tokyo CPI figures look comfortable, but who believes it? The central bank will have to find an excuse to continue the tightening.