This Christmas holiday, BTC repeatedly confirmed around 42,000, while ETH's momentum appears somewhat weak. On the surface, trading seems quiet, but if you observe the order book and contract positions carefully, you can detect a different underlying tone.

Tomorrow's large futures delivery is approaching, and over the past three weeks, the open interest on exchanges has been steadily rising, attracting the attention of many traders. Interestingly, the ratio of long to short positions has shown a clear asymmetry—often a signal that the main players are positioning themselves in the market.

There are two opposing voices in the market. One side emphasizes that the positive Christmas consumption data has already been fully priced in; the other side is calculating the "probability of long liquidation" based on delivery volume. But honestly, these surface numbers are often just visual effects; the true flow of chips is usually hidden deeper.

Worth noting is the news last week that a leading institution increased its BTC holdings by 12,000 coins, which barely caused a ripple amid the Christmas greetings flooding social media. The recent movement in crypto-related stocks at the US stock market close last night is also often attributed simply to "holiday funds speculation." Is this a coincidence, or a deliberate shift of attention? Each participant can make their own judgment.

Experience tells us: delivery days are rarely a one-way harvest scene; they are more like tools for the main players to reorganize their chip structure. Often, what you perceive as technical support may actually be a trap for long positions, and seemingly bad news or bearish signals can sometimes be cover for large funds to accumulate at low levels.

Instead of guessing, it’s better to focus on a few key attack and defense points and the true capital logic behind the holiday market. Grasp the rhythm well—this is far more rational than blindly chasing rallies or panicking to sell.