Let's analyze rationally the probability of a small bull market in 2026. If we only look at past K-line charts, 2026 is basically a deep crypto bear market.

2014 decline -58% (correcting the 2013 frenzy)

2018 decline -73% (correcting the 2017 ICO bubble)

2022 decline -64% (correcting the 2021 DeFi bubble)

According to this model, Bitcoin should fall back to the $40,000-$50,000 range in 2026, and altcoins will face a 95% wipeout wave.

The variable is the previously mentioned irreversible qualitative change in market structure. We now have ETFs and institutional allocation-based buying,

Even if the market declines, there will be continuous pension funds,

Sovereign wealth funds passively dollar-cost averaging at key support levels, making it unlikely for $BTC to experience another sharp decline like in 2022.

Additionally, 2018 and 2022 both occurred during rate hike and balance sheet reduction cycles, which are vastly different from the macro liquidity environment in 2026.

Another trend that favors the crypto market, or more specifically BTC, is the continuous decline in the purchasing power of global fiat currencies: the surge in US debt interest payments (estimated by institutions to exceed the defense budget by 2026), forcing the Treasury to maintain liquidity easing to sustain debt rollover.

- The fiat supply increases at a rate of 5%-7% annually. Besides combating centralization risks, BTC’s hedging property is most crucial for anti-inflation, which is the fundamental consensus basis for a future slow or long-term bull market.

Another fact worth looking forward to is that, in 2018 and 2022, aside from speculation and BTC, there were almost no substantial applications in crypto. But by 2026, we already have pumpfun, highly cross-industry hypeliquid, prediction markets, and stablecoins integrated with PayPal.

Therefore, crypto is very likely to see a killer app comparable to TikTok or ChatGPT, bringing hundreds of millions of new users and large amounts of capital.

If the probability of a bull market is modeled: a 50% chance that 2026 will be a soft landing and slow bull, with no need to cut losses on core tokens (BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB), and BTC likely to fluctuate widely between $80,000 and $140,000.

A 20% chance of breaking the four-year cycle super bull market. A 30% chance of a complete collapse reminiscent of history repeating itself. But regardless, for institutions, 2026 is a perfect allocation period, while for retail investors used to hundredfold coins, it can be treated as a bear market for strategic planning.