Market Prediction Sparks Heated Discussion: Senior Traders Estimate Short-Term BTC Rebound Potential Up to 10% Based on On-Chain Data and Fundamentals

How to interpret on-chain data?

In the past week, whale addresses holding over 1000 coins increased their holdings by 15%. What does this mean? Exchange wallet balances have fallen to their lowest point this year, indicating a significant easing of selling pressure. Network activity is on the rise, hash rate remains stable or slightly increasing, all signs pointing to one conclusion: long-term players are quietly accumulating.

Interesting technical observations: The 50-week moving average is currently around 65K. Historical backtests show that this line has over an 80% success rate in bouncing back. When the price returns near this level, it often presents a good entry point.

Fundamentals and Market Logic

An interesting phenomenon has been observed—previous aggressive "60-day doubling" claims are gradually becoming more rational, shifting to "10% rebound." Behind this is capital reallocation across assets. Some funds are rotating back from all-time highs in stocks, real estate, and precious metals, while BTC, after dropping 35%, is beginning to show relative value.

However, risks must also be considered—there are many long positions with 40x leverage in the market, which suggests volatility could come quickly and intensely. In the short term, the market remains optimistic about capital flow, but don’t let emotions cloud judgment.

My Perspective

On-chain accumulation + technical support levels + capital rotation—these three dimensions resonate. In the next 1-2 weeks, BTC has at least a 10% rebound potential, with retesting the 50-week moving average being a reasonable target. These predictions are not baseless; the data is speaking.

My approach is to increase spot holdings and wait for the market to give answers. Be cautious of leverage frenzy, but don’t miss clear logical opportunities out of fear. #比特币流动性 is also doing similar accumulation, worth paying attention to.