The precious metals market has experienced a thrilling rollercoaster. On December 24th during Asian hours, spot gold temporarily hit a new all-time high, reaching $4525/oz, then faced a sharp pullback, ultimately stabilizing around $4480/oz. Currently, the Christmas holidays in Europe and America are underway, with the overseas markets closed until next Tuesday, and the market is in a pause.

The logic behind this breakout is quite clear: soaring risk aversion + expectations of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions are chaotic, with the US deploying special forces and troops to the Caribbean region in preparation for potential military action against Venezuela; renewed tensions at the Cambodia-Thailand border, with Cambodia’s defense ministry confirming Thai fighter jets dropping cluster bombs; on the Russia-Ukraine front, Zelensky’s 20-point peace plan was announced, but territorial disputes remain a tough nut to crack, and Russia’s key demands are unmet, making a ceasefire unlikely. Multiple geopolitical risks are exerting pressure simultaneously, causing gold prices to rise naturally. However, as the holidays approach, many long traders are getting restless and choosing to take profits, resulting in a rapid decline after the surge.

Looking at the annual performance, gold undoubtedly stands out as the best performer of the year, with an increase of over 70%, marking the strongest annual performance since 1979. It has wrapped up the year quite perfectly.

Next, two key variables need close attention. First is the upcoming release of US economic data, which will directly influence market expectations for rate cuts. Second is the rebalancing issue in early January 2026—the Bloomberg Commodity Index will adjust its weightings due to this year's sharp gains in gold and silver, and tracking funds are likely to sell some positions. The scale of gold selling is expected to account for about 3% of its open interest in futures contracts, and this selling pressure cannot be ignored.

From a technical perspective, the 1-hour chart shows that after the surge, the gold price has fallen below the moving average, breaking the previous upward momentum, which aligns perfectly with the expectation of "lack of upward momentum before the holidays." In the short term, gold is likely to continue weakening at the next week’s opening; in the long term, geopolitical risks are hard to dissipate, and central banks around the world are still continuously increasing their holdings, so support remains.