DogeCoin bearish trend intensifies, signaling large-scale liquidation by long-term holders

Dogecoin(DOGE) has entered a long-term bearish phase. The current price is $0.13, showing a continuous decline over the past three weeks. Notably, changes observed in on-chain data and the derivatives market since November suggest the possibility of further decline, warranting close attention.

Long-term Holder Liquidation Signals Detected

The most notable signal supporting Dogecoin’s bearish trend is the liquidation of long-inactive assets. According to data from the on-chain analytics platform Santiment(Santiment), the average holding period of coins held for over a year has decreased from 404 days on November 2 to 375 days currently. This indicates that dormant, old supply is re-entering the market.

More direct evidence is seen in the Spent Coins Age Band indicator. The daily sell volume in the 365~2 year range surged in November, with 690.7 million DOGE traded on November 10 alone. This marks the largest daily volume release since May 9, when 256 million DOGE were traded, suggesting that existing investors are increasingly taking profits.

Reduced Leverage Positions and Increased Risk Aversion

Derivatives market movements also reflect deteriorating market sentiment. According to CoinGlass(CoinGlass), DOGE futures open interest decreased from $14.8 billion on Tuesday to $14.3 billion on Wednesday. Notably, the liquidation of long positions was dominant, indicating a growing risk-averse stance among market participants.

Technical Indicators Warn of Further Decline

Technical signals on the daily chart are also negative. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below the neutral 50 level, indicating bearish momentum, and the MACD is attempting to cross below its signal line, suggesting a high likelihood of renewed strong selling pressure.

In terms of price, Dogecoin is currently unable to break above the $0.17 resistance level. If market sentiment does not improve, there is a risk of retesting the June 27 low of $0.157, and in a more severe correction, a decline toward the April 7 low of $0.129 cannot be ruled out.

Conversely, if the price recovers above $0.185, it could signal a reversal toward the 50-day exponential moving average at $0.199. However, at this stage, the release of long-term holder supply and weakening market sentiment are expected to be key factors influencing Dogecoin’s short-term direction.