International gold, after reaching a high of $4,247, is in a correction phase... The strength of the dollar is a short-term factor

Breaking New Weekly Highs and Entering Profit-Taking Stage

The international gold price(XAU/USD) has experienced a temporary correction from its strong upward momentum, entering a phase of price consolidation. On Thursday during Asian trading hours, it reached $4,247 per ounce, setting a new weekly high, but subsequently gave back gains due to a technical rebound in the US dollar. The Federal Reserve(Fed)'s news of interest rate cuts was a positive signal, but as the dollar attempted to rebound from its lows after late October, short-term downward pressure on gold prices has increased.

The Dual Nature of Fed Policy… Rate Cut Confirmed but Future Direction Unclear

The main uncertainty shaking the gold market now is the ambiguity of central bank policies. The Fed decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25bp(0.25%), but signaled through the dot plot that the number of additional cuts in 2026 would be limited to one. Moreover, the revelation that two members voted against the tightening stance during this decision process has heightened concerns about a potential easing stance next year.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed a dovish stance in a press conference, stating, “We need to pay attention to downside risks in the labor market.” This comment triggered dollar weakness, pushing gold prices up to $4,247, but the lack of specific guidance on future rate cut schedules is holding back further gains.

Stock Market Strength and the Uncertainty of Safe-Haven Assets

Amid the robust global stock markets, investor risk appetite has increased, negatively impacting traditional safe-haven assets like international gold prices. Historically, during stock rallies, capital tends to flow out of gold markets, which has been a recurring pattern.

However, geopolitical tensions are providing a strong defensive barrier against price declines. Reports indicate that Ukraine’s military attacked a Russian shadow fleet tanker in the Black Sea with drones amid stalled peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. President Putin’s reaffirmation of his intention to control the Donbas region has shown a hardened stance, suggesting ongoing regional conflicts. These geopolitical risks remain a key factor supporting gold prices firmly in the $4,200 range.

The market’s next directional move is expected to depend on upcoming US labor market data, such as the weekly jobless claims report to be released Thursday night.

Technical Analysis: Resistance Breakthrough… Buying Opportunity at $4,165

From a technical perspective, the international gold price has been fluctuating within the resistance zone of $4,245–4,250, which has been established over the past two weeks.

For an upward scenario, a clear breakout above $4,250 is essential to resume the trend. If this resistance is broken, a rally toward $4,278 and eventually $4,300 is possible.

Conversely, in a deeper correction scenario, the $4,170–4,165 zone is expected to serve as the first buying(pullback) opportunity. If prices fall below this level, the final support zone will be $4,125–4,120. This zone coincides with the 200-period exponential moving average(EMA) and the upward trendline since late October, forming a strong confluence zone(Confluence Zone), which could mark a significant turning point in the medium-term trend.