The recent market divergence is quite interesting—almost all risk assets are making leaps and bounds, except for Bitcoin and most altcoins which are taking a hit. What's really going on here?

The answer lies in macroeconomics and capital flows.

First, look at the global backdrop: strong GDP data directly dashed market expectations of rate cuts. CME and forecast market data are clear—probability of rate cuts has fallen to low levels. This is positive for traditional risk assets—strong economy means stable corporate earnings expectations, providing support for stocks and bonds. But what about the crypto market? The crypto market is most sensitive to loose monetary policy; the failure of rate cut expectations means losing its core driving force.

Next, consider signals from capital flows: continuous outflows from crypto ETFs reflect shrinking institutional demand. Few institutions are willing to go against the trend at this point. This decline in demand directly impacts prices—especially hitting altcoins hardest. Without Bitcoin’s "independent market" support, once capital flows retreat, systemic淘汰 begins.

In simple terms, Bitcoin is following its own rhythm, while altcoins are caught in a completely passive situation. This divergence is fundamentally the result of macroeconomic expectation reversal combined with tightening capital flows.