The bull market was shattered by shattered consensus, and the bear market lurks deep in oblivion—this is not merely a technical correction but a fierce vacuum on the demand side.

Recently, I came across an analysis that is truly chilling upon closer inspection. The issue is not about mentioning a bear market, but about revealing an invisible truth: this upward cycle is not driven by retail investors at all, but by the alternating forces of US spot ETFs, macro cycles, and corporate asset allocation. Now, they are all starting to tighten their grip.

The most alarming details are as follows:

US spot ETFs have shifted from last year's frantic accumulation to this year's reverse operations, with BTC holdings reduced by about 24,000 coins. This is not a routine rebalancing; it signals a strategic retreat. Wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have stagnated, indicating that large players' enthusiasm for hoarding coins has suddenly cooled—history has a clear memory of this, as it was the scene at the end of 2021, after which the market entered a prolonged bear phase. The price has fallen below the 365-day moving average, symbolizing the breach of the long-term confidence support line, and losing this line often signals a cycle turning point.

How should we respond? The key is not to ask "Will it continue to fall," but rather "Who is quietly exiting?" The selling pressure this time comes from proactive exits by institutions—they have already exhausted the benefits brought by policies, cycles, and narratives. Now, only retail investors are left shaking on the stage.

A few practical suggestions: First, review your holdings; if more than half of your position was bought at high levels, you are among the last to take the hit. Second, do not blindly believe in the "bottom-fishing" story; institutional selling has just begun, and trying to catch this drop with your hands is like trying to stop a hydraulic press with your fingers. Third, keep at least 30% of your assets in USDT or other stablecoins; in a bear cycle, cash is not passive but a survival tool.

The liquidity vacuum in Bitcoin is forming, and the upcoming trend will be very interesting.