#美联储降息 Fed dot plot data has been released, and things are much more complicated than they appear.

A 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed sounds routine, but the details reveal serious internal divisions—6 committee members believe there shouldn’t be a cut at all, which is a much higher proportion than the two public dissenters. The hawkish signals conveyed by the dot plot are actually more aggressive than the dissenting votes, directly raising the threshold for future rate cuts.

Key observation points:

**Policy Expectation Reversal** — The market has fully priced in this month's rate cut, but further easing in 2026 now depends on whether economic data deteriorates or inflation continues to fall. This means that the policy space is severely compressed in the short term.

**Changes in Power Structure** — Powell is facing a rare coordination dilemma, with half of his colleagues opposing interest rate cuts, yet he has pushed for this decision. The transition to the new chair will also become a point for the market to reassess policy tendencies.

**Ambiguity in Employment Data** — Rising unemployment rate vs. employment growth exceeding expectations, this is the crux of the hawkish-dovish divide. If the weakness in employment is due to a contraction in labor supply rather than insufficient demand, then the justification for interest rate cuts does not hold.

From an on-chain perspective, the uncertainty of this policy outlook often prolongs the capital decision-making cycle. Large investors will be more cautious, waiting for the next round of economic data to confirm. Short-term volatility may intensify, but the direction is unclear. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent speeches of Fed officials and the real signals from non-farm data.