Last Time XRP Touched This Point, Price Rallied Massively Before Crashing 95%

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XRP’s long-term chart rarely attracts attention during quiet months. It usually does so in moments of stress. A growing group of analysts has argued that the market may be closer to another inflection point than many holders expect.

JD (@jaydee_757), a popular technical analyst on X, believes the current setup mirrors prior cycle behavior. His focus is on the 21-month EMA, a level that XRP has now reached again. According to JD, the current setup points to a crucial decision for XRP.

XRP’s Repeating Cycle

JD states, “We are now touching 21M EMA.” He links this directly to historical behavior rather than short-term momentum. In his post, he reminds followers that the last time XRP touched the same moving average, its price surged to a new peak before collapsing by roughly 95%. He describes that prior move as a rally that trapped what he calls “dumb money” before a severe decline.

JD also highlights his prior calls. He identified the 2017 cycle bottom near $0.28, and called the rise to the peak near $3.37 before a decline to $1.60. He presents these calls as evidence that he can anticipate turning points. He adds that he intends to call the next top and take his profit on time while using dumb money investors who refuse to leave as exit liquidity.

What the Chart Shows

The attached chart compares the current structure with the 2017/2018 cycle. In that period, XRP rallied aggressively after touching the 21M EMA. The asset’s price then broke down and lost most of its value during the bear market. JD marks that decline as a 95% crash.

On the current chart, XRP remains above its monthly peak from the previous cycle, and continues to respect the 21M EMA. JD notes that price is still holding above both, which keeps the bullish phase technically intact. At the same time, he emphasizes that this exact condition existed before the previous cycle peak failed.

JD’s View on Market Behavior

JD’s language toward long-term holders remains direct. He argues that participants who refuse to sell into strength often provide exit liquidity near cycle tops. He plans to sell heavily during the next cycle, acting before sentiment shifts.

For now, JD treats the current level as a warning sign. XRP may still move higher. He believes the risk increases the longer the price remains near the levels that preceded the last collapse.

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