#宏观经济影响 Recently, I have read quite a few analyses on the restructuring of the Fed's power, and I have been repeatedly thinking about a question: What should we do with the assets we hold when the underlying rules of the monetary system are being rewritten?

To be honest, this macro change is much more complicated than it appears on the surface. The Trump team is gradually shifting the powers that originally belonged to the Fed over to the Treasury Department—it's not just as simple as changing the chairman, but rather a redistribution of the entire monetary pricing system. The control over long-term interest rates, the sources of liquidity, and the mechanisms of the balance sheet are all being redefined.

From a micro perspective, the data actually provides us with quite a bit of comfort. The ETF outflows over the past two months seem alarming, but upon closer analysis, it is mainly leveraged funds engaged in basis arbitrage that were forced to liquidate, rather than a collective panic withdrawal by institutional investors. Long-term allocation institutions like Fidelity and BlackRock have actually maintained net inflows, while Grayscale's redemptions accounted for more than half of the outflows. In other words, those truly exiting the market are the leveraged positions chasing short-term spreads, leaving behind a healthier capital structure.

This reminds me of a core piece of advice: when the market is filled with uncertainty, the most important thing is not to predict short-term trends, but to manage your positions and mindset effectively. Don't be frightened by every market fluctuation, and don't be overly stimulated to chase after gains by the contrarian moves of certain institutions. When the price dropped to a very low point, Saylor increased his positions, and Tom Lee continuously raised funds through ATM purchases. What gives them the confidence to do this? It comes from a clear judgment of long-term trends and ample cash reserves.

For most people, this period is actually a good time to sort out their asset allocation. Confirm your risk tolerance, whether your allocation ratio is reasonable, and if your psychological defenses are strong enough. The process of a new order arriving will certainly be chaotic, and this chaos is a moment that tests our resolve. The market in the coming months may indeed emerge from this chaos, but that is precisely where those who understand how to wait and exercise restraint can profit.